Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:20:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AF
0xaf5c…c54b
crypto · 247 markets active 0h ago
1.5score
−$243 -17%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$243 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$22
Realized−$243
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses99 / 144
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)243 / 247
History coverage326d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%
Chart Positions 4 History 243 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$10
14 days+$10
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+10%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Over 32¢ 30¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
XRP Up or Down - September 21, 6AM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 6AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 9AM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 28, 10AM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - September 6, 10AM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40-45 million views on day 1? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - October 16, 4PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - October 6, 2PM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - September 26, 1PM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - September 10, 3PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 6, 1PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - August 31, 8AM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - October 12, 1PM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - October 18, 11AM ET Up 66¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 2PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 12PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Paetongtarn Shinawatra out as PM of Thailand by August 31? No 20¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - September 28, 8AM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 2, 3PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 3PM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Elon" or "Musk" during his announcement on September 2? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +114%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 14 $1 $0 -9%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 +$8 +276%
Solana Up or Down on November 15? Nov 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 9, 10AM ET Nov 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 9AM ET Nov 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 5, 8AM ET Nov 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 9AM ET Oct 26 $5 +$5 +96%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 1PM ET Oct 21 $6 +$5 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 2PM ET Oct 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - October 19, 7AM ET Oct 19 $4 +$3 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 5AM ET Oct 19 $5 +$4 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 18, 10AM ET Oct 19 $6 +$5 +85%
XRP Up or Down - October 18, 12PM ET Oct 18 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - October 18, 11AM ET Oct 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - October 18, 9AM ET Oct 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - October 17, 1PM ET Oct 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 12PM ET Oct 17 $5 +$4 +85%
XRP Up or Down - October 16, 4PM ET Oct 16 $7 −$7 -100%
XRP Up or Down - October 16, 3PM ET Oct 16 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - October 12, 2PM ET Oct 13 $10 +$9 +89%
Solana Up or Down - October 13, 2PM ET Oct 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - October 13, 1PM ET Oct 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 12, 1PM ET Oct 12 $9 −$9 -100%
XRP Up or Down - October 12, 12PM ET Oct 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 8, 2PM ET Oct 09 $5 +$4 +85%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 9, 1PM ET Oct 09 $7 +$6 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 12PM ET Oct 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - October 7, 12PM ET Oct 07 $6 +$5 +83%
XRP Up or Down - October 6, 3PM ET Oct 07 $7 +$6 +81%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 6, 2PM ET Oct 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 5, 4AM ET Oct 05 $3 +$4 +143%
Solana Up or Down - October 5, 4AM ET Oct 05 $7 +$6 +92%
Solana Up or Down - October 5, 3AM ET Oct 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - October 5, 2AM ET Oct 05 $8 −$8 -100%
XRP Up or Down - October 4, 1PM ET Oct 04 $8 +$8 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 2PM ET Oct 04 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - October 4, 11AM ET Oct 04 $5 +$6 +112%
XRP Up or Down - October 4, 12PM ET Oct 04 $7 −$7 -100%
XRP Up or Down - October 4, 10AM ET Oct 04 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 3PM ET Oct 02 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - September 30, 1PM ET Oct 01 $10 +$9 +85%
Solana Up or Down - September 28, 3PM ET Sep 28 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 28, 2PM ET Sep 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 28, 12PM ET Sep 28 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 28, 11AM ET Sep 28 $21 −$14 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 28, 10AM ET Sep 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - September 28, 8AM ET Sep 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45–50 million views on day 1? Sep 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - September 27, 3PM ET Sep 27 $11 +$10 +87%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 74% −$127
other 11% −$101
world 7% +$13
sports 3% +$12
politics 2% −$12
tech 2% $0
economics 2% −$26
weather 0% +$2
finance 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 6m
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 BUY Over 32¢ $3 1h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 23h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 23h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 23h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 45h
Solana Up or Down on November 15? BUY Up 48¢ $9 211d
Ethereum Up or Down - November 9, 10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $7 216d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 9AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 216d
Solana Up or Down - November 5, 8AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 221d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 9AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 232d
Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 1PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $6 235d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 2PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 237d
Solana Up or Down - October 19, 7AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 238d
Solana Up or Down - October 19, 7AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $4 238d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 5AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $9 238d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 5AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 238d
XRP Up or Down - October 18, 12PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 238d
XRP Up or Down - October 18, 11AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 238d
Ethereum Up or Down - October 18, 10AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $6 238d
Solana Up or Down - October 18, 9AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 239d
Solana Up or Down - October 17, 1PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 239d
XRP Up or Down - October 16, 4PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $7 240d
XRP Up or Down - October 16, 3PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 240d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 12PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 240d
Solana Up or Down - October 13, 2PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $6 243d
Solana Up or Down - October 13, 1PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $2 243d
XRP Up or Down - October 12, 2PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 244d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-26.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +127.1% +105.5% 67% 67% +159.8%
≤30d 3 +127.1% +105.5% 67% 67% +159.8%
≤90d 3 +127.1% +105.5% 67% 67% +159.8%
all 243 -19.1% -26.8% 41% 40% -24.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.8% 40% -24.9%
10% -33.8% 39% -32.1%
15% -40.2% 37% -38.7%
20% -46.0% 37% -44.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.94 · official $21.94 (match) · 392 history records