Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T01:15:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
AF 0xaf5e…e5f0 other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$9 (+2%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate80%8W / 2L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% +$2
crypto 13% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +4.5% -5.4% 80% 10% -7.9%
≤30d 10 +4.5% -5.4% 80% 10% -7.9%
≤90d 10 +4.5% -5.4% 80% 10% -7.9%
all 10 +4.5% -5.4% 80% 10% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.4% 10% -7.9%
10% -14.5% 10% -16.7%
15% -22.8% 0% -24.7%
20% -30.3% 0% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×88.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×355.51 per $1 lost it wins $355.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses8 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 27 $100 $0 +0%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 26, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 27 $226 +$1 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 26 $26 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 26, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 26 $35 $0 +0%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 26, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 26 $20 +$1 +3%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 26 $25 $0 -0%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 26 $20 +$1 +5%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 26, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 26 $20 $0 -0%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 26, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 26 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 26 $19 +$6 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 26, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $226 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $26 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 26, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $35 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 26, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $20 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $20 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 26, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 26, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $19 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 20 history records