Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:55:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
AF 0xaf5f…2184 crypto 1931 markets active 1h ago coverage 96d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 96d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,417 (+28%) realized +$5,351 · open +$66
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate47%890W / 1006L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day25.2pace
Fees−$153est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$378now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$2,499
crypto 26% −$1,129
other 15% +$708
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 434 -10.0% -18.6% 41% 40% -12.6%
≤30d 643 +11.2% +0.6% 49% 48% +5.3%
≤90d 931 +5.6% -4.5% 48% 47% +0.7%
all 1896 +0.5% -9.0% 47% 45% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.0% 45% -5.1%
10% ← realistic here -17.8% 42% -14.2%
15% -25.7% 40% -22.5%
20% -33.0% 38% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$7 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$378
Realized+$5,351
Unrealized+$66
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses890 / 1006
Est. fees paid−$153
Open positions35
Markets (closed)1896 / 1931
History coverage96d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day25.2
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 35 History 1896 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WRAITH PCIFIC (BO3) - TESFED League Playoffs WRAITH PCIFIC 45¢ 52¢ $71 $83 +$12 (+17%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Under 50¢ 56¢ $25 $28 +$3 (+11%)
Counter-Strike: Linx Legacy Esport vs Fortress (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Division 1 Playoffs Linx Legacy Esport 42¢ 100¢ $10 $25 +$14 (+138%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 37¢ 100¢ $9 $25 +$16 (+170%)
Map Handicap: 100T (-1.5) vs Leo Team (+1.5) Leo Team 45¢ 100¢ $11 $25 +$14 (+122%)
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qualifier Playoffs Walczaki 61¢ 56¢ $18 $17 −$1 (-7%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 49¢ 56¢ $12 $14 +$2 (+13%)
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs KOLESIE 48¢ 52¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+9%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Under 70¢ 74¢ $12 $12 +$1 (+6%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Under 55¢ 60¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+8%)
Map Handicap: K27 (-1.5) vs SHISHKA (+1.5) SHISHKA 49¢ 46¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-7%)
Map Handicap: WAL (-1.5) vs Oxuji Esports (+1.5) Walczaki 34¢ 42¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+24%)
Montreal Alouettes vs. Edmonton Elks Edmonton Elks 35¢ 38¢ $9 $9 +$1 (+7%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Under 34¢ 50¢ $6 $9 +$3 (+45%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 39¢ 36¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will FC Universitario win on 2026-05-09? Yes 57¢ 44¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-24%)
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qualifier Playoffs Oxuji Esports 30¢ 44¢ $4 $7 +$2 (+45%)
Map Handicap: KOL (-1.5) vs Sashi Esport (+1.5) KOLESIE 25¢ 34¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+38%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner G2 32¢ 34¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner InterActive Philippines 29¢ 32¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+12%)
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Korea Republic 31¢ 32¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Major League Cricket: Los Angeles Knight Riders vs San Francisco Unicorns Los Angeles Knight Riders 40¢ 44¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+10%)
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner InterActive Philippines 28¢ 30¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+7%)
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner Mentality Monster 28¢ 28¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Counter-Strike: K27 vs SHISHKA (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qualifier Playoffs SHISHKA 24¢ 24¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 464 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - March 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 10, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 9, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $54 −$54 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Pistons vs. Hornets Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Clippers vs. Hawks Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bucks vs. Lakers Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 10, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 10, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $10 52m
Map Handicap: K27 (-1.5) vs SHISHKA (+1.5) BUY SHISHKA 49¢ $12 1h
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 31¢ $5 2h
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 58¢ $3 2h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY Afghanistan 11¢ $2 2h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY Afghanistan 11¢ $2 2h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 24¢ $4 2h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout BUY Mentality Monster 23¢ $1 2h
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner BUY InterActive Philippines 28¢ $4 3h
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY InterActive Philippines 29¢ $4 3h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner BUY Mentality Monster 28¢ $4 3h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode BUY Walczaki 61¢ $19 4h
Map Handicap: 100T (-1.5) vs Leo Team (+1.5) BUY Leo Team 45¢ $11 4h
Counter-Strike: Linx Legacy Esport vs Fortress (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen BUY Linx Legacy Esport 42¢ $11 4h
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria - Game 2 Winner BUY 4 Anchors and Ilmeria 15¢ $2 4h
Map Handicap: WAL (-1.5) vs Oxuji Esports (+1.5) BUY Walczaki 34¢ $9 5h
Map Handicap: 1WIN (-1.5) vs INOX Division (+1.5) BUY 1WIN 24¢ $4 5h
Map Handicap: KOL (-1.5) vs Sashi Esport (+1.5) BUY KOLESIE 25¢ $4 6h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY Team Nemesis 69¢ $21 6h
Set 2 Winner: Hijikata vs Lehecka BUY Hijikata 24¢ $1 6h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner BUY Estar Backs 42¢ $9 6h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner BUY Estar Backs 42¢ $4 6h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Infinite 50¢ $5 7h
Valorant: 555 vs Oasis Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY 555 45¢ $5 7h
Parma (Doubles): Paul/Seggerman vs Galan/Tobon BUY Paul/Seggerman 57¢ $29 8h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 17¢ $3 9h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $11 9h
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Virtus.pro vs Team Yandex (BO5) - BetBoom Ri BUY Virtus.pro 45¢ $11 11h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 35¢ $9 11h
Map Handicap: FOKUS (-1.5) vs Noir Verse (+1.5) BUY Noir Verse 30¢ $5 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $377.71 · official $377.72 (match) · 3500 history records