trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 8 | +13.2% | +2.5% | 62% | 62% | -10.1% |
| ≤30d | 10 | +16.0% | +5.0% | 70% | 70% | -8.2% |
| ≤90d | 21 | +10.9% | +0.4% | 52% | 48% | -7.0% |
| all | 21 | +10.9% | +0.4% | 52% | 48% | -7.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +0.4% | 48% | -7.0% |
| 10% | -9.2% | 29% | -15.9% |
| 15% | -18.0% | 24% | -24.0% |
| 20% | -26.0% | 14% | -31.5% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 7¢ | 7¢ | $102 | $99 | −$2 (-2%) |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 9¢ | 9¢ | $50 | $50 | −$0 (-1%) |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | No | 45¢ | 0¢ | $77 | $0 | −$77 (-100%) |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | No | 37¢ | 0¢ | $60 | $0 | −$60 (-100%) |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | No | 4¢ | 0¢ | $5 | $0 | −$5 (-99%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? | Jun 17 | $58 | −$17 | -29% |
| Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Jun 17 | $55 | +$11 | +20% |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Jun 13 | $39 | +$8 | +20% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? | Jun 12 | $34 | +$12 | +35% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? | Jun 12 | $43 | +$11 | +25% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? | Jun 12 | $45 | +$24 | +53% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? | Jun 11 | $223 | −$31 | -14% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? | Jun 11 | $450 | −$24 | -5% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | May 31 | $28 | +$11 | +40% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | May 23 | $71 | +$10 | +15% |
| Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? | May 18 | $17 | $0 | -2% |
| Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026? | May 15 | $10 | +$10 | +105% |
| Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026? | May 12 | $4 | $0 | +2% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | May 12 | $20 | +$20 | +100% |
| Will Trump praise Allah again by April 30? | Apr 30 | $61 | +$10 | +16% |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? | Apr 17 | $10 | −$2 | -23% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Apr 17 | $10 | −$5 | -47% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Apr 17 | $20 | −$8 | -39% |
| Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? | Apr 17 | $10 | −$1 | -13% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? | Apr 17 | $32 | −$4 | -12% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 on April 16? | Apr 17 | $5 | −$1 | -19% |