Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:24:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
AF 0xaf64…c2c6 other 154 markets active 1h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate9%13W / 139L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$296per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$25
politics 31% −$18
sports 8% +$41
tech 2% −$1
crypto 2% −$1
economics 2% −$1
world 1% $0
culture 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 11 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 112 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 152 +2.6% -7.2% 9% 5% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 5% -9.5%
10% -16.1% 5% -18.2%
15% -24.2% 3% -26.1%
20% -31.6% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×9.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses13 / 139
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)152 / 154
History coverage136d
Avg bet$296
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 152 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 24 $48 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $249 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $32 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 20 $27 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $30 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $745 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $255 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $273 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $259 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $201 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $296 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 25 $456 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $521 −$1 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 23 $220 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $558 −$1 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $600 −$1 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 21 $508 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $257 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $492 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $217 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $255 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $290 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 14 $247 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $281 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 13 $303 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $548 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $245 $0 -0%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election May 10 $225 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $290 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $281 −$1 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $259 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 06 $210 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $469 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $891 −$1 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $574 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $250 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $276 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $246 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $525 −$1 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $299 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $209 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 02 $301 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $282 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $517 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $214 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $574 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 29 $525 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 29 $623 −$1 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 28 $240 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $215 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? BUY No 100¢ $43 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? BUY No 100¢ $36 1h
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $48 1h
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $48 25h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $39 2d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $39 3d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $32 4d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $32 4d
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $27 4d
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 4d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $30 5d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 19d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $231 27d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $231 27d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $255 27d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $255 27d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $273 27d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $273 28d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $259 28d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $259 28d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $201 29d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $201 29d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $296 29d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $296 29d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $233 30d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $233 30d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $212 31d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $212 31d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $220 31d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $220 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.94 · official $78.94 (match) · 453 history records