Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:44:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AF 0xaf64…bf7d finance 11 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d
RISKYcopy with care finance specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$314 (-4%) realized −$315 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate30%3W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$662per market
Trades / day27.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days−$173
14 days−$448
30 days−$448
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 100% −$447
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -8.2% -16.9% 20% 20% -17.9%
≤30d 10 -3.9% -13.0% 30% 20% -19.3%
≤90d 10 -3.9% -13.0% 30% 20% -19.3%
all 10 -3.9% -13.0% 30% 20% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.0% 20% -19.3%
10% ← realistic here -21.3% 0% -27.1%
15% -28.9% 0% -34.1%
20% -35.9% 0% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
18.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$69 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$315
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses3 / 7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage14d
Avg bet$662
Trades / day27.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? Up 31¢ 31¢ $43 $44 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $2,613 −$2 -0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $80 +$14 +17%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $335 −$140 -42%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $980 −$24 -2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $456 −$20 -4%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $1,957 −$292 -15%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $85 +$13 +15%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $81 −$2 -2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $96 +$7 +7%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $47 −$1 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 30¢ $33 9m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? SELL Down 65¢ $46 12m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? SELL Down 67¢ $4 12m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 33¢ $4 15m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 33¢ $6 16m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 64¢ $51 17m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? SELL Up 37¢ $63 22m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 39¢ $6 24m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? SELL Up 42¢ $9 24m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 35¢ $9 27m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 28¢ $8 50m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 28¢ $15 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 28¢ $20 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? SELL Up 28¢ $52 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? SELL Up 27¢ $8 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 22¢ $21 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 23¢ $31 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? SELL Down 74¢ $54 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 73¢ $54 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? SELL Down 72¢ $52 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 72¢ $53 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? SELL Up 28¢ $35 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 39¢ $45 3h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 40¢ $0 4h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 41¢ $5 4h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? SELL Up 44¢ $47 4h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 46¢ $51 5h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? SELL Down 52¢ $52 6h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 50¢ $51 6h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 18? SELL Down 42¢ $41 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.61 · official $42.90 (match) · 388 history records