Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:47:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
AF 0xaf65…2341 sports 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 39d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$476 (+13%) realized +$477 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +46% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +32% what you keep after slip
Net edge+32%after slip
Net WR79%break-even
Win rate79%11W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$236per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$687
7 days+$1,300
14 days+$1,300
30 days+$449
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% +$1,140
politics 28% −$851
other 12% +$159
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +79%
net ROI/market (all)+32.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +57.5% +42.5% 85% 85% +35.4%
≤30d 14 +46.2% +32.3% 79% 79% +12.9%
≤90d 14 +46.2% +32.3% 79% 79% +12.9%
all 14 +46.2% +32.3% 79% 79% +12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +32.3% 79% +12.9%
10% +19.6% 79% +2.1%
15% +8.1% 71% -7.8%
20% -2.5% 50% -16.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 30% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +46% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late +70% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$143 vs −$375 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized+$477
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses11 / 3
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions2
Markets (closed)14 / 16
History coverage39d
Avg bet$236
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Canada 75¢ 74¢ $49 $48 −$1 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 23¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $174 +$215 +124%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $152 +$98 +65%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $70 +$202 +291%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $202 −$200 -99%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $202 +$92 +46%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $202 +$80 +40%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $252 +$61 +24%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $253 +$138 +55%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $153 +$222 +146%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $76 −$75 -98%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $409 +$243 +60%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $293 +$116 +40%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $187 +$107 +57%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 09 $1,068 −$851 -80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.98 · official $83.64 (match) · 31 history records