Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T16:39:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AF 0xaf66…a858 crypto 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$79 (+0%) realized +$81 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate62%18W / 11L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$662per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$698now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$827
7 days−$1,319
14 days−$1,319
30 days−$1,319
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% −$1,947
other 44% +$200
sports 0% −$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)+6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -15.4% -23.4% 73% 14% -15.8%
≤30d 22 -15.4% -23.4% 73% 14% -15.8%
≤90d 29 +17.7% +6.4% 62% 17% -17.7%
all 29 +17.7% +6.4% 62% 17% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.4% 17% -17.7%
10% -3.7% 14% -25.5%
15% -13.0% 10% -32.7%
20% -21.6% 7% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$1,102) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +42% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$109 vs −$340 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$698
Realized+$81
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses18 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)29 / 31
History coverage81d
Avg bet$662
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? No 91¢ 90¢ $500 $497 −$3 (-1%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? No 95¢ 96¢ $200 $201 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 24 $1,120 −$1,120 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 24 $1,004 +$60 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 24 $1,102 +$24 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 24 $1,002 +$23 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 24 $802 −$802 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 24 $201 +$12 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 24 $503 +$52 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 24 $1,304 +$50 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 24 $1,007 +$104 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 24 $604 +$63 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 24 $1,206 −$41 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 24 $552 +$29 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 24 $203 +$57 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 24 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1,532 +$668 +44%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $502 −$502 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $288 +$13 +4%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,934 +$141 +7%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,900 +$35 +2%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $35 −$34 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,595 +$340 +21%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $492 −$492 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Apr 04 $20 +$233 +1165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Apr 04 $521 −$495 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Apr 04 $100 −$96 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Apr 04 $35 −$34 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Apr 04 $100 −$95 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Apr 04 $30 +$55 +185%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Apr 04 $30 −$29 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1,120 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1,004 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1,102 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1,002 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $802 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $201 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $503 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1,304 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1,007 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $604 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1,104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $501 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $101 2h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 95¢ $200 5h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 91¢ $501 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 9h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 69¢ $1,532 17h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $502 22h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 96¢ $278 23h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $10 25h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 93¢ $1,934 39h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $35 40h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 98¢ $368 43h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 98¢ $570 43h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 98¢ $517 43h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 98¢ $446 43h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 82¢ $1,595 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $698.31 · official $698.31 (match) · 67 history records