Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T14:03:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
AF 0xaf67…e8f2 other 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$88 (+8%) realized +$90 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate60%6W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$248now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$65
7 days+$69
14 days+$77
30 days+$77
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% +$96
crypto 16% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -5.1% -14.2% 71% 43% -1.4%
≤30d 10 -0.9% -10.3% 60% 40% -1.2%
≤90d 10 -0.9% -10.3% 60% 40% -1.2%
all 10 -0.9% -10.3% 60% 40% -1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 40% -1.2%
10% -18.9% 30% -10.6%
15% -26.7% 30% -19.3%
20% -33.9% 20% -27.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$27 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.72 per $1 lost it wins $1.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$248
Realized+$90
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses6 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage9d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-30? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $250 $248 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $101 +$65 +64%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $251 +$50 +20%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $101 −$78 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 23 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$26 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $90 +$3 +4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$46 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 20 $37 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$1 -29%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $18 +$11 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 77¢ $252 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $166 41h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 47h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $301 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $251 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 19¢ $22 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $95 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $101 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $26 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 96¢ $94 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $90 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $147 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 9¢ $19 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $27 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $6 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Down 57¢ $4 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $18 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $248.38 · official $248.38 (match) · 30 history records