Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:27:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

AF 0xaf69…8f51 politics 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 442d

RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real

Total PnL +$4,286 (+67%) realized +$4,361 · open −$75

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip

Net edge-2%after slip

Net WR20%break-even

Win rate60%3W / 2L

Drawdown5%max

Avg bet$1,067per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit83%portable

Net worth$2,876now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 442d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +20%

net ROI/market (all)+2.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	no closed markets
all	5	+13.0%	+2.2%	60%	20%	+104.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+2.2%	20%	+104.0%
10%	-7.6%	20%	+84.5%
15%	-16.5%	20%	+66.6%
20%	-24.7%	20%	+50.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI — too few recent

Fragile wins

67% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +13% · $-wt +125% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$1,496 vs −$100 · ×14.91 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×22.37 per $1 lost it wins $22.37

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

442d coverage

Net worth$2,876

Realized+$4,361

Unrealized−$75

Win rate (resolved)60%

Wins / losses3 / 2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)5 / 6

History coverage442d

Avg bet$1,067

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown5%

Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	59¢	57¢	$2,951	$2,876	−$75 (-3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Lee Jae-myung win 45-50% of the vote in the South Korea election?	Jun 03	$2,841	+$4,484	+158%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea?	Jun 01	$150	$0	-0%
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea?	Jun 01	$209	−$200	-96%
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be elected the next president of South Korea?	Jun 01	$212	+$2	+1%
South Korea election scheduled by Friday?	Apr 08	$5	$0	+2%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	59¢	$2,987	1h
Will Lee Jae-myung win 45-50% of the vote in the South Korea election?	SELL Yes	96¢	$6,365	384d
Will Lee Jae-myung win 45-50% of the vote in the South Korea election?	SELL Yes	96¢	$960	384d
Will Lee Jae-myung win 45-50% of the vote in the South Korea election?	BUY Yes	38¢	$707	385d
Will Lee Jae-myung win 45-50% of the vote in the South Korea election?	BUY Yes	39¢	$1,762	385d
Will Lee Jae-myung win 45-50% of the vote in the South Korea election?	BUY Yes	30¢	$373	386d
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea?	SELL No	96¢	$150	386d
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea?	SELL Yes	0¢	$9	386d
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be elected the next president of South Korea?	SELL No	100¢	$214	386d
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea?	BUY Yes	5¢	$107	417d
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be elected the next president of South Korea?	BUY No	97¢	$1	431d
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be elected the next president of South Korea?	BUY No	97¢	$1	433d
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be elected the next president of South Korea?	BUY No	98¢	$10	435d
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be elected the next president of South Korea?	BUY No	98¢	$100	435d
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be elected the next president of South Korea?	BUY No	99¢	$100	436d
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea?	BUY Yes	5¢	$2	439d
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea?	BUY Yes	5¢	$1	439d
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea?	BUY Yes	5¢	$9	439d
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea?	BUY Yes	5¢	$6	439d
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea?	BUY Yes	4¢	$4	440d
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea?	BUY Yes	4¢	$50	440d
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea?	BUY No	96¢	$50	442d
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea?	BUY No	96¢	$100	442d
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea?	BUY Yes	4¢	$30	442d
South Korea election scheduled by Friday?	BUY Yes	98¢	$5	442d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,875.81 · official $2,875.81 (match) · 26 history records