Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:57:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
AF 0xaf6c…536d other 64 markets active 2h ago coverage 620d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate24%15W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$276per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 77% −$14
politics 12% −$6
other 9% +$19
sports 1% −$6
tech 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 16 -6.4% -15.3% 6% 0% -11.2%
≤90d 51 -0.9% -10.4% 25% 18% -8.9%
all 63 -0.9% -10.3% 24% 14% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 14% -9.6%
10% -18.9% 14% -18.2%
15% -26.7% 11% -26.1%
20% -33.9% 11% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$2 · ×2.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

620d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses15 / 48
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)63 / 64
History coverage620d
Avg bet$276
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $56 $56 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 17 $15 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $32 $0 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $15 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 11 $107 $0 -0%
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $14 $0 -0%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $17 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $34 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $94 $0 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $13 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $12 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 01 $33 $0 +0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 30 $17 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 24 $15 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 23 $11 $0 -0%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies May 18 $8 +$9 +124%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 13 $84 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $159 $0 -0%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 11 $8 +$6 +86%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $75 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $76 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $71 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 01 $72 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 01 $74 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $151 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Apr 24 $76 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $74 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 23 $77 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $79 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 22 $75 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $78 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $74 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $78 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Apr 11 $41 +$1 +4%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $6 +$5 +72%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $7 +$5 +79%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $10 +$8 +86%
Bucks vs. Nets Apr 08 $8 −$8 -100%
Hornets vs. Celtics Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Sharks Apr 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies Apr 07 $16 +$2 +10%
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Houston Cougars: O/U 139.5 Apr 06 $23 −$23 -100%
Penguins vs. Lightning Apr 06 $18 −$18 -100%
Flames vs. Avalanche Apr 02 $27 +$9 +32%
Pistons vs. Timberwolves Mar 30 $20 +$22 +113%
Magic vs. Cavaliers Mar 27 $20 +$6 +30%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 24 $20 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $56 1h
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $15 15h
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $15 17h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $15 38h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $15 39h
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $15 2d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $15 2d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $18 6d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $18 6d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $14 7d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $14 7d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $17 8d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $17 8d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 47¢ $8 8d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $18 9d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $18 9d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $15 12d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $15 12d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $20 13d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $20 13d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $12 14d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $13 14d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $19 15d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $19 15d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $12 16d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $12 16d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $11 17d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $11 17d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $17 18d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $17 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.68 · official $55.68 (match) · 308 history records