Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:23:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xaf6d…65a7 crypto 370 markets active 1h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$36 (-4%) realized −$66 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate55%205W / 165L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day29.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$28
14 days−$37
30 days−$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$61
sports 1% $0
world 1% −$5
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 198 -1.9% -11.2% 65% 31% -13.6%
≤30d 358 -7.9% -16.7% 57% 31% -14.4%
≤90d 370 -10.0% -18.6% 55% 31% -16.0%
all 370 -10.0% -18.6% 55% 31% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.6% 31% -16.0%
10% ← realistic here -26.4% 15% -24.0%
15% -33.5% 9% -31.4%
20% -40.0% 6% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$66
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses205 / 165
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)370 / 370
History coverage36d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day29.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 370 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Down 37¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Down 63¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Up 80¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Down 73¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 on May 9? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Down 66¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $7 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 13 $6 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$2 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 13 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $8 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $2 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1350 history records