Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:44:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AF 0xaf6f…9f0a sports 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$359 (+5%) realized +$413 · open −$54
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate53%18W / 16L
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$195per market
Trades / day11.5pace
Fees−$58est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$102
other 33% +$381
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +3.8% -6.1% 53% 50% -5.1%
≤30d 34 +3.8% -6.1% 53% 50% -5.1%
≤90d 34 +3.8% -6.1% 53% 50% -5.1%
all 34 +3.8% -6.1% 53% 50% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 50% -5.1%
10% -15.1% 44% -14.2%
15% -23.3% 26% -22.5%
20% -30.8% 26% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$135 vs −$132 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized+$413
Unrealized−$54
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses18 / 16
Est. fees paid−$58
Open positions2
Markets (closed)34 / 36
History coverage4d
Avg bet$195
Trades / day11.5
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs 1WIN 61¢ 52¢ $117 $101 −$16 (-14%)
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs InterActive Philippines 9¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$37 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $107 −$105 -98%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos (BO3) - The International South Jun 20 $295 −$292 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $103 −$102 -99%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $80 +$23 +29%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $19 −$19 -98%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $80 −$79 -99%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - European Pro League Playof Jun 19 $47 −$46 -98%
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs Jun 19 $49 +$128 +260%
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $100 −$98 -98%
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $119 −$117 -98%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter Jun 19 $161 +$359 +222%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $103 +$57 +55%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A Jun 19 $97 +$404 +417%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $198 −$195 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $495 −$490 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $100 −$98 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $125 −$124 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $96 +$29 +30%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $238 −$233 -98%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $139 +$332 +239%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $64 −$63 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $427 +$138 +32%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $121 +$108 +90%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $241 +$78 +32%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $189 +$52 +27%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $167 +$22 +13%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $83 +$84 +101%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $53 +$31 +60%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $933 +$19 +2%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $797 +$135 +17%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $641 +$155 +24%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $360 +$281 +78%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof BUY 1WIN 61¢ $119 56m
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The International Southe BUY InterActive Philippines 9¢ $39 3h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia BUY Grind Back 15¢ $31 4h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner BUY Grind Back 4¢ $10 5h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner BUY Grind Back 46¢ $97 5h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos (BO3) - The International South BUY Yangon Galacticos 72¢ $295 11h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 73¢ $103 11h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $80 21h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 49¢ $19 22h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner BUY VP.Prodigy 64¢ $80 23h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - European Pro League Playof BUY VP.Prodigy 16¢ $21 23h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - European Pro League Playof BUY VP.Prodigy 33¢ $27 24h
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs SELL Hive 100¢ $177 25h
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs BUY Hive 27¢ $49 26h
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner BUY Carstensz 36¢ $100 27h
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz - Game 1 Winner BUY Carstensz 30¢ $119 28h
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter SELL InterActive Philippines 100¢ $520 29h
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter BUY InterActive Philippines 30¢ $161 30h
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner SELL InterActive Philippines 100¢ $160 30h
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner BUY InterActive Philippines 64¢ $103 31h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A SELL Amaru Gaming 100¢ $501 31h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A BUY Amaru Gaming 19¢ $97 33h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Amaru Gaming 46¢ $198 34h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $495 35h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $100 43h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $125 45h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 72¢ $125 45h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $96 47h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 36¢ $238 2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Yakult Brothers 100¢ $472 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.24 · official $101.24 (match) · 58 history records