Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:35:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xaf70…e3e1 crypto 114 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (74 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3 (-2%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate71%81W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day73.9pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$6
other 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (74 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 114 -6.7% -15.6% 71% 52% -14.3%
≤30d 114 -6.7% -15.6% 71% 52% -14.3%
≤90d 114 -6.7% -15.6% 71% 52% -14.3%
all 114 -6.7% -15.6% 71% 52% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover73.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.6% 52% -14.3%
10% ← realistic here -23.7% 18% -22.5%
15% -31.0% 9% -30.0%
20% -37.8% 6% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses81 / 33
Open positions0
Markets (closed)114 / 114
History coverage3d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day73.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 114 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +11%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +32%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +11%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +57%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +17%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +23%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 1m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 1m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 20m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 243 history records