Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:57:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xaf72…f7f2 other 3 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$14 (+1%) realized +$4 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$673per market
Trades / day30.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$885now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% −$990
sports 5% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
10.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
— vs −$550 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$885
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)2 / 3
History coverage1d
Avg bet$673
Trades / day30.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $875 $885 +$10 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1,030 −$1,000 -97%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $101 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $8 2m
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 3m
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $17 6m
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $122 15m
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 15m
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 17m
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $44 24m
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 26m
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 27m
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $8 28m
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $8 28m
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 29m
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 31m
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 33m
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 38m
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $8 41m
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $8 52m
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 55m
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $14 58m
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $31 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $9 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $526 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 0¢ $1,030 1h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $885.05 · official $885.05 (match) · 30 history records