trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 23¢ | 23¢ | $10 | $10 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? | Yes | 48¢ | 48¢ | $2 | $1 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 12 | $5 | −$5 | -94% |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 12 | $5 | $0 | -8% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 15? | Jun 09 | $1 | −$1 | -71% |
| Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? | May 24 | $4 | $0 | +12% |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | May 24 | $8 | −$7 | -87% |
| Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? | May 22 | $5 | −$1 | -13% |
| Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs | May 17 | $10 | +$7 | +65% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 | May 16 | $9 | +$2 | +20% |
| Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31? | May 16 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET | May 08 | $1 | +$1 | +66% |
| Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? | May 08 | $10 | −$8 | -83% |
| Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10? | May 05 | $20 | −$5 | -25% |
| Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? | May 03 | $16 | +$5 | +31% |
| Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? | May 03 | $10 | +$6 | +63% |
| Will Lando Norris win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? | May 02 | $14 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Trump say "Coward" in April? | May 02 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Trump visit China by May 15? | May 02 | $9 | −$2 | -18% |
| Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? | May 02 | $5 | +$1 | +27% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET | Apr 26 | $14 | +$8 | +57% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET | Apr 26 | $13 | +$1 | +6% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | Apr 24 | $13 | +$1 | +4% |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? | Apr 09 | $10 | −$7 | -74% |
| Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? | Apr 08 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | -57.6% | -61.6% | 0% | 0% | -57.3% |
| ≤30d | 9 | -19.2% | -26.9% | 44% | 33% | -18.6% |
| ≤90d | 23 | -13.8% | -22.0% | 52% | 35% | -20.2% |
| all | 23 | -13.8% | -22.0% | 52% | 35% | -20.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -22.0% | 35% | -20.2% |
| 10% | -29.5% | 26% | -27.8% |
| 15% | -36.3% | 17% | -34.8% |
| 20% | -42.6% | 17% | -41.2% |