Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:38:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
AF 0xaf77…c826 sports 51 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$92 (+13%) realized +$63 · open +$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate37%16W / 27L
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$133now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days+$62
14 days+$62
30 days+$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% +$134
other 44% −$48
world 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +14.0% +3.1% 37% 33% +9.2%
≤30d 43 +7.9% -2.4% 37% 35% -0.5%
≤90d 43 +7.9% -2.4% 37% 35% -0.5%
all 43 +7.9% -2.4% 37% 35% -0.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.4% 35% -0.5%
10% -11.7% 35% -10.1%
15% -20.2% 30% -18.7%
20% -28.1% 30% -26.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$8 · ×2.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$133
Realized+$63
Unrealized+$29
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses16 / 27
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions8
Markets (closed)43 / 51
History coverage22d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 100¢ $10 $35 +$25 (+257%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Minnesota Twins 79¢ 96¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+22%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Detroit Tigers 82¢ 90¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+9%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $20 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries Golden State Valkyries 71¢ 68¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 45¢ 42¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 23¢ 18¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-24%)
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Yes 22¢ 24¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $10 +$7 +68%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $2 $0 -7%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $25 +$17 +68%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -76%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 +$4 +84%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$6 +28%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -40%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -30%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -42%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $20 −$4 -21%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$10 +95%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$25 +246%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$9 -90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $20 −$4 -19%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $20 +$13 +63%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 $0 -11%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$9 -85%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 −$25 -82%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $20 +$34 +170%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $4 +$28 +704%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$21 +107%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $36 −$18 -51%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $38 +$33 +88%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $60 −$58 -97%
Valorant: All Gamers vs TEC Esports (BO3) - China Evolution Series Act May 29 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 29 $5 −$5 -97%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $10 +$6 +63%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers Leag May 28 $10 +$5 +53%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 28 $10 +$2 +23%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Alliance (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playo May 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 28 $20 $0 -0%
Washington Mystics vs. Seattle Storm May 28 $15 $0 -1%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $30 +$74 +246%
Will Liverpool finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? May 24 $30 −$29 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 71¢ $20 22m
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 82¢ $20 43m
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Minnesota Twins 79¢ $20 48m
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 52m
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 53m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 57m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 58m
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 1h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings BUY Dallas Wings 62¢ $5 2h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings BUY Dallas Wings 55¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 2h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 78¢ $20 2h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 2h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 5h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 7h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 8h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $20 8h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 8h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 9h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 9h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 9h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 10h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 10h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 10h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 10h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 54¢ $16 14h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 65¢ $20 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $133.31 · official $133.31 (match) · 94 history records