Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:24:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xaf79…e5a0 other 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 252d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$19 (-2%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate16%6W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$11
world 35% $0
politics 9% +$2
sports 8% −$9
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 8 -2.1% -11.4% 0% 0% -10.7%
≤90d 9 -1.9% -11.2% 0% 0% -10.7%
all 37 -0.9% -10.4% 16% 5% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 5% -11.2%
10% -19.0% 3% -19.7%
15% -26.8% 3% -27.4%
20% -34.0% 0% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 96% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

252d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses6 / 31
Open positions2
Markets (closed)37 / 39
History coverage252d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $48 $48 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 30¢ 18¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $120 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $138 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $59 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $33 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $40 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $3 $0 -4%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $54 −$6 -12%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $56 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 23 $8 $0 -0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Jan 31 $31 −$5 -16%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 06 $4 +$2 +36%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 26 $47 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 26 $11 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $19 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $18 $0 +0%
Buccaneers vs. Rams Nov 25 $19 −$11 -58%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 22 $14 $0 +0%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-23? Nov 22 $3 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 21 $81 $0 +0%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $31 $0 +0%
Will Valencia win on 2025-11-21? Nov 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $14 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 19 $17 +$2 +14%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Nov 04 $2 $0 +6%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 13 $21 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 13 $19 $0 +0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 13 $19 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 10 $21 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 10 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 10 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 09 $24 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $48 1h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $41 10d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $7 10d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $48 10d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $22 10d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $18 10d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $30 10d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $11 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $24 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $35 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $8 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $5 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $11 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $24 10d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 81¢ $33 12d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 81¢ $31 12d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 81¢ $2 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $40 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $40 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $13 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $10 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $16 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $39 13d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 14d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 14d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.22 · official $48.05 (match) · 219 history records