Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:26:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AF 0xaf7a…222d sports 70 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$305 (-8%) realized −$298 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%26W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$390now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$151
7 days−$104
14 days−$349
30 days−$349
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% −$566
other 26% +$266
crypto 4% −$6
world 1% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 +0.7% -8.9% 48% 48% -12.9%
≤30d 60 -9.4% -18.0% 43% 43% -20.0%
≤90d 60 -9.4% -18.0% 43% 43% -20.0%
all 60 -9.4% -18.0% 43% 43% -20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.0% 43% -20.0%
10% -25.9% 43% -27.7%
15% -33.0% 43% -34.7%
20% -39.6% 42% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$49 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$390
Realized−$298
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses26 / 34
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions6
Markets (closed)60 / 70
History coverage8d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Curaçao 62¢ 60¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Under 55¢ 55¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Under 41¢ 40¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Japan 40¢ 38¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Japan leading at halftime? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $47 $47 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $51 +$30 +60%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $51 −$50 -99%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $51 −$50 -99%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 −$50 -49%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $20 +$90 +438%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$44 +86%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $51 +$40 +79%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$34 +67%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $51 +$34 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$31 +62%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $51 −$50 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $51 −$50 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $51 +$45 +90%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $51 +$58 +114%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 +$45 +90%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 +$71 +140%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $78 +$54 +69%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
England leading at halftime? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$42 +83%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$58 +114%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$51 +101%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$68 +134%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$34 +67%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$33 +65%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$24 +48%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $51 +$74 +146%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 +$39 +76%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 +$39 +76%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $96 −$95 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$95 +93%
Sweden leading at halftime? Jun 15 $59 +$94 +158%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$44 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 48¢ $48 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 40¢ $51 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $51 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $51 1h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 62¢ $101 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 44¢ $51 3h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 61¢ $51 6h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $51 6h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 64¢ $51 6h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 6h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $51 6h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 44¢ $51 6h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 56¢ $48 6h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 6h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY 5¢ $17 6h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 53¢ $51 28h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $51 28h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $51 28h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $51 28h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $51 28h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $51 28h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 29h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 29h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 18¢ $20 29h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 0.5 BUY Over 52¢ $51 44h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $51 44h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $51 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $51 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $390.04 · official $390.04 (match) · 99 history records