Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:07:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xaf7d…eef9 crypto 970 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 8d only
✗ bot/MM pace (303 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$928 (+3%) realized +$932 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate48%465W / 504L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day302.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$9
14 days−$478
30 days−$478
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$482
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (303 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 706 -2.0% -11.4% 50% 42% -9.6%
≤30d 969 -4.5% -13.6% 48% 40% -11.0%
≤90d 969 -4.5% -13.6% 48% 40% -11.0%
all 969 -4.5% -13.6% 48% 40% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover302.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.6% 40% -11.0%
10% ← realistic here -21.8% 34% -19.5%
15% -29.4% 17% -27.3%
20% -36.3% 9% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$8 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized+$932
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses465 / 504
Open positions1
Markets (closed)969 / 970
History coverage8d ⚠
Avg bet$31
Trades / day302.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 969 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Up 73¢ 58¢ $18 $15 −$4 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $19 +$6 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $19 +$6 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $62 −$12 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$6 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $39 −$14 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $22 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $51 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $44 −$19 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $28 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $19 +$6 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $13 +$12 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $25 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $24 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$6 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $108 −$8 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $19 +$6 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $46 −$21 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $56 −$6 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $12 +$13 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $33 −$8 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $64 −$14 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$6 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $13 +$12 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$6 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$6 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $35 −$10 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$6 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$5 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $19 +$6 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $40 −$15 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $27 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $18 +$7 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $19 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $18 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $19 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $13 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $19 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $14 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $17 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $7 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $7 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $12 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $19 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $14 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $17 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $13 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $8 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $18 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $19 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $14 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $16 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $3 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $19 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $18 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $14 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $19 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $3 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $11 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.62 · official $12.62 · 3500 history records