Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T18:25:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
AF 0xaf83…7fb1 other 63 markets active 2h ago coverage 476d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+1%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate48%30W / 32L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$0
14 days+$3
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% −$1
other 27% +$4
politics 12% $0
crypto 6% +$2
sports 2% +$5
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +1.0% -8.6% 44% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 22 +0.2% -9.3% 45% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 22 +0.2% -9.3% 45% 0% -9.6%
all 62 +1.8% -7.9% 48% 3% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 3% -8.9%
10% -16.7% 3% -17.6%
15% -24.8% 3% -25.6%
20% -32.1% 3% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.19 per $1 lost it wins $2.19
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

476d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses30 / 32
Open positions1
Markets (closed)62 / 63
History coverage476d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 96¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 25 $18 −$1 -5%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 24 $1 $0 +10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 23 $46 $0 -0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $42 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 21 $22 +$1 +4%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $50 $0 +1%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $46 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $21 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $4 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $60 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $24 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $46 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $62 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $51 +$3 +6%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 11 $47 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $47 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 08 $46 −$4 -9%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $12 $0 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $29 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 06 $11 $0 +2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $92 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $23 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 20 $2 −$1 -68%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 20 $1 $0 -14%
Will Elon tweet 275–299 times May 9–16? May 17 $12 $0 +4%
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 9–16? May 17 $13 $0 +2%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the May 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el May 15 $12 $0 -1%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? May 15 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? May 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 13 $11 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2025? May 12 $13 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? May 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will Estonia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 10 $6 +$5 +96%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the Hart Trophy? May 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? May 09 $2 +$1 +57%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 May 08 $17 $0 +1%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? May 08 $17 $0 -0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? May 08 $18 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in May? May 07 $17 $0 +0%
Will Mercedes be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 07 $17 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? May 06 $16 $0 +0%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? May 05 $18 +$1 +4%
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in his first 100 days? Apr 06 $19 $0 +1%
Will Elena Lasconi win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian Apr 05 $18 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Apr 04 $18 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $21 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $30 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $17 17h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $18 21h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes $1 39h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes $1 41h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 96¢ $46 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 96¢ $1 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 96¢ $45 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $7 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $35 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 48¢ $42 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $10 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $5 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $7 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $7 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $12 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $50 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $50 5d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 22¢ $9 5d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 22¢ $9 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $16 6d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $30 6d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $46 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $21 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $21 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $4 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $2 8d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $2 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.15 · official $50.15 (match) · 201 history records