Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:28:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AF 0xaf83…da82 sports 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$150 (+10%) realized +$152 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate44%14W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$273now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$53
7 days+$167
14 days+$167
30 days+$167
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% +$214
other 31% −$53
world 2% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +9.2% -1.2% 43% 43% +3.7%
≤30d 28 +9.2% -1.2% 43% 43% +3.7%
≤90d 29 +5.5% -4.6% 41% 41% +2.7%
all 32 +6.0% -4.1% 44% 41% +2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.1% 41% +2.5%
10% -13.3% 41% -7.3%
15% -21.7% 41% -16.3%
20% -29.4% 41% -24.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$32 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$273
Realized+$152
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses14 / 18
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage110d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Yes 61¢ 60¢ $275 $273 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $81 +$109 +134%
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Jun 20 $100 +$89 +90%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $59 −$58 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $36 −$35 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Neither team to score first? Jun 19 $26 −$25 -97%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 −$2 -16%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $25 +$34 +134%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Neither team to score first? Jun 17 $35 −$34 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 +$19 +62%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $26 −$25 -97%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $26 +$96 +373%
France vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? Jun 16 $26 +$34 +132%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $168 +$207 +123%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $169 −$168 -100%
Fabián Ruiz: 1+ goals Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $36 +$36 +101%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $31 +$31 +103%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $15 +$21 +140%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $25 +$22 +86%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $10 +$28 +288%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -90%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 14 $41 −$41 -99%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $11 −$11 -98%
Will India win the 2026 ICC Men’s T20 World Cup? Mar 08 $7 +$6 +93%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Mar 08 $19 +$2 +10%
Will US or Israel strike Iran first? Mar 02 $10 −$7 -71%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $278 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $81 8h
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) BUY Haiti 52¢ $100 11h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 50¢ $59 14h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $36 17h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 10¢ $26 22h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 25¢ $26 37h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes $1 42h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes $12 42h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $15 44h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes $35 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $51 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 12¢ $26 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $25 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $30 3d
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 97¢ $121 3d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 20¢ $26 3d
France vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? SELL Yes 19¢ $33 3d
France vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? SELL Yes 15¢ $26 3d
France vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes $26 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $205 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 71¢ $170 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 37¢ $168 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 84¢ $169 4d
Fabián Ruiz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $26 4d
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 19¢ $10 5d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 34¢ $15 5d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $25 5d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $36 5d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 91¢ $62 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $272.58 · official $272.58 (match) · 60 history records