Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T03:20:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xaf83…caf7 other 182 markets active 0h ago coverage 563d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$64 (-2%) realized −$63 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate87%153W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$114now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% −$140
crypto 18% −$9
world 15% +$19
tech 14% +$2
sports 12% +$67
politics 1% −$3
economics 1% $0
finance 1% $0
culture 0% $0
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 9 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 68 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 1% -7.9%
all 176 +0.3% -9.2% 87% 12% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 12% -11.6%
10% -17.9% 10% -20.0%
15% -25.8% 7% -27.7%
20% -33.1% 3% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$8 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

563d coverage
Net worth$114
Realized−$63
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses153 / 23
Open positions6
Markets (closed)176 / 182
History coverage563d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 176 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $390 in June? No 99¢ 96¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $690 in June? No 100¢ 99¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-0%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $750B by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will Silver (SI) settle over $140 on the final trading day of June 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cap FDV above $800M one day after launch? Jun 27 $165 $0 +0%
GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026? Jun 27 $152 +$1 +1%
Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2026 mee Jun 18 $16 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026? Jun 04 $178 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in May? Jun 01 $67 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May? Jun 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? Jun 01 $111 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 May 30 $5 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca May 30 $6 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $30 in May? May 29 $2 $0 +0%
Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch? May 26 $162 +$2 +1%
Nexus FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 21 $161 +$1 +1%
Will Israel be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $88 +$7 +8%
Will Australia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 14 $87 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 12 $84 +$3 +3%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $288 in May? May 07 $4 $0 +1%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $140 end of April? May 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $60 in April? May 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in April? May 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee May 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o May 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after April 2026 meeti May 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $30 in April? May 05 $3 $0 +1%
Will the Bank of Canada announce a 25 bps decrease at the April meetin May 05 $3 $0 +1%
Will xAI have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the April 2026 meeting? May 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in April? May 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $900 in April? May 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $130 end of April? May 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in April? May 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me May 05 $4 $0 +1%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch? May 05 $46 +$2 +5%
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? Apr 29 $3 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026? Apr 25 $47 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $39 +$8 +20%
Genius FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 14 $56 +$3 +5%
Will the Bank of Korea increase the base rate after the April Meeting? Apr 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate after the April Apr 10 $3 $0 +1%
Will the Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate Apr 09 $3 $0 +0%
Will Chainlink reach $14 in March? Apr 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $120 in March? Apr 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will Ethena reach $0.16 in March? Apr 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will Ethena dip to $0.00 in March? Apr 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.20 in March? Apr 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.60 in March? Apr 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in March? Apr 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in March? Apr 01 $3 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $18 25m
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $690 in June? BUY No 100¢ $27 1h
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $390 in June? BUY No 99¢ $30 16h
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $29 16h
Cap FDV above $800M one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $151 36h
Cap FDV above $800M one day after launch? BUY No 99¢ $14 2d
GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $152 3d
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $750B by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $6 22d
Will Silver (SI) settle over $140 on the final trading day of June 202 BUY No 99¢ $5 23d
Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $16 24d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $178 26d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $1 29d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? BUY No 100¢ $111 29d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in May? BUY No 100¢ $67 29d
Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch? BUY Yes 99¢ $162 33d
Nexus FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 99¢ $161 38d
Will Israel be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $88 43d
Will Australia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? BUY Yes 99¢ $87 47d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $84 50d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 BUY No 100¢ $5 50d
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca BUY No 100¢ $4 50d
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca BUY No 100¢ $3 52d
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $288 in May? BUY Yes 99¢ $4 52d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $30 in May? BUY No 100¢ $2 53d
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $60 in April? BUY No 99¢ $1 61d
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in April? BUY No 99¢ $2 61d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch? BUY Yes 95¢ $46 62d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $140 end of April? BUY No 100¢ $1 63d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $47 66d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $39 68d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $114.06 · official $114.06 (match) · 482 history records