Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:49:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AF 0xaf84…0e0d crypto 436 markets active 0h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$348 (+6%) realized +$348 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate61%265W / 171L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$200
7 days+$381
14 days+$408
30 days+$411
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$173
sports 1% −$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 168 +20.7% +9.2% 67% 66% +0.5%
≤30d 404 +6.2% -3.9% 62% 60% -2.4%
≤90d 436 +3.0% -6.8% 61% 58% -7.5%
all 436 +3.0% -6.8% 61% 58% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 58% -7.5%
10% -15.7% 45% -16.4%
15% -23.8% 36% -24.5%
20% -31.3% 27% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$11 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$348
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses265 / 171
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)436 / 436
History coverage69d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 436 Trades
no open positions (135 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 22 $39 +$14 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 22 $93 −$91 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 22 $47 −$45 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 22 $65 +$9 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 22 $49 +$23 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 22 $43 +$31 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 22 $53 +$18 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 22 $51 +$22 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 22 $47 +$25 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 22 $37 +$33 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 22 $88 +$57 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 22 $53 +$21 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 22 $71 −$69 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 22 $17 −$16 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 22 $42 +$24 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 22 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 22 $43 +$13 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 22 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 22 $49 +$9 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 22 $80 +$38 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 21 $74 −$73 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 21 $41 +$12 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 21 $46 +$9 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 21 $40 +$13 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 21 $14 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 21 $64 +$43 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 21 $58 +$53 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 21 $20 +$27 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 21 $39 +$6 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 21 $33 −$32 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 21 $22 +$9 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 21 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 21 $34 −$33 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 21 $23 −$22 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 21 $24 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 21 $16 +$14 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 21 $20 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 21 $17 +$10 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 21 $14 +$25 +177%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 21 $27 +$30 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 21 $27 +$28 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 21 $22 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 21 $24 +$11 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 21 $17 +$10 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 21 $7 −$7 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $39 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $46 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $47 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $65 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $49 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $43 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $53 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $51 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $47 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $37 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $52 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $36 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $50 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $51 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $20 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $6 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $9 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $33 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $32 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $43 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $49 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $43 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $37 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $35 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 837 history records