Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:43:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xaf87…e1c2 crypto 931 markets active 1h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$58 (+1%) realized +$58 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate77%717W / 214L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day19.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$71
7 days−$61
14 days−$64
30 days−$79
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% +$59
other 11% −$85
sports 3% −$14
world 0% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 86 -5.1% -14.1% 62% 51% -12.9%
≤30d 290 -5.0% -14.1% 68% 60% -12.7%
≤90d 931 -2.3% -11.6% 77% 65% -10.3%
all 931 -2.3% -11.6% 77% 65% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 65% -10.3%
10% -20.1% 30% -18.9%
15% -27.8% 13% -26.7%
20% -34.9% 4% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$58
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses717 / 214
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)931 / 931
History coverage56d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day19.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 931 Trades
no open positions (134 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 19 $12 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 19 $12 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 19 $12 −$12 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 19 $6 +$4 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 19 $12 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 19 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 19 $50 −$10 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 19 $11 +$20 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 19 $51 −$37 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 19 $25 −$12 -48%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $15 +$20 +134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$8 -16%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $23 +$11 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $39 +$20 +50%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$3 +10%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $76 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $50 −$7 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$15 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$6 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 57¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 9¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $25 2h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 13h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 18h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $25 22h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $15 43h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1878 history records