Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T16:41:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AF 0xaf87…b064 weather 996 markets active 1h ago coverage 83d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 82d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$570 (-5%) realized −$575 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate75%727W / 240L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day24.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$848now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$305
7 days−$290
14 days−$281
30 days−$263
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 82% −$342
crypto 13% −$42
other 3% +$50
sports 2% −$88
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 86 -2.1% -11.4% 86% 2% -21.4%
≤30d 276 +0.1% -9.4% 90% 4% -14.3%
≤90d 967 -2.1% -11.4% 75% 19% -12.8%
all 967 -2.1% -11.4% 75% 19% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.4% 19% -12.8%
10% ← realistic here -19.9% 15% -21.2%
15% -27.7% 14% -28.8%
20% -34.8% 13% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$8 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$848
Realized−$575
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses727 / 240
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions28
Markets (closed)967 / 996
History coverage83d ⚠
Avg bet$13
Trades / day24.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 28 History 967 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 24? No 95¢ 100¢ $128 $135 +$7 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 42°C on June 25? No 95¢ 93¢ $109 $106 −$3 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 38°C on June 24? No 99¢ 100¢ $86 $87 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 25? No 97¢ 99¢ $84 $86 +$2 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 24? No 100¢ 100¢ $55 $55 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 24? No 100¢ 96¢ $55 $53 −$2 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 25? No 94¢ 92¢ $47 $46 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on June 25? No 95¢ 95¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 69°F or below on June 24? No 100¢ 100¢ $44 $44 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 25? No 97¢ 98¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on June 24? No 99¢ 100¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 25? No 98¢ 99¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 24? No 98¢ 100¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 24? No 99¢ 100¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C or below on June 24? No 100¢ 100¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C or below on June 24? No 98¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 25? No 97¢ 98¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 26? No 98¢ 93¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 24? No 96¢ 97¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 67°F or below on June 24? No 99¢ 100¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 24? No 100¢ 99¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 90°F or higher on June 25? No 100¢ 100¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 25? No 99¢ 99¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C or higher on June 24? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 26? No 97¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on June 24? Jun 24 $134 +$5 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 45°C on June 24? Jun 24 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 44°C on June 24? Jun 24 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 24? Jun 24 $24 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 24? Jun 24 $27 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 24? Jun 24 $39 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 24 $135 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on June Jun 24 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 24? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 24 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 38°C on June 23? Jun 23 $196 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 44°C on June 23? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 23 $5 −$3 -67%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 23? Jun 23 $5 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 23? Jun 23 $15 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C or below on June 23? Jun 23 $7 −$4 -60%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 23 $155 −$87 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June Jun 23 $17 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 23? Jun 23 $69 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 98-99°F on June 22? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 22? Jun 23 $18 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 23? Jun 23 $31 −$18 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 22? Jun 22 $583 −$206 -35%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 22? Jun 22 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 22? Jun 22 $38 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 22 $11 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 21? Jun 22 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 21? Jun 22 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 21? Jun 22 $52 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 19? Jun 22 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 20? Jun 22 $15 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 18? Jun 22 $11 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 21? Jun 21 $21 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 21? Jun 21 $5 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 21? Jun 21 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 21? Jun 21 $52 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 20? Jun 21 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 20? Jun 21 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 19? Jun 21 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 20? Jun 20 $9 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 20? Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 96°F or higher on June 20? Jun 20 $11 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 20? Jun 20 $9 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 20? Jun 20 $19 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on June 20? Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $13 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 20? Jun 20 $6 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 20? Jun 20 $5 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 25? BUY No 94¢ $23 48m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 42°C on June 25? BUY No 93¢ $23 48m
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 25? BUY No 97¢ $22 49m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 45°C on June 24? SELL No 100¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 44°C on June 24? SELL No 100¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 24? SELL No 99¢ $41 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? AN BUY 26¢ $3 6h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY No 96¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 26? BUY No 98¢ $10 7h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 42°C on June 25? BUY No 97¢ $11 7h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 25? BUY No 98¢ $10 7h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY No 95¢ $11 7h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 42°C on June 25? BUY No 97¢ $28 8h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY No 95¢ $29 8h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 25? BUY No 98¢ $28 8h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 26? BUY No 97¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 26? BUY No 95¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 24? SELL No 5¢ $0 9h
Will the highest temperature in London be 38°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $5 10h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $5 11h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $5 11h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 24? BUY No 96¢ $5 11h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C or below on June 24? BUY No 99¢ $5 13h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 24? BUY No 95¢ $5 13h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 25? BUY No 96¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 90°F or higher on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $8 15h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $7 15h
Will the highest temperature in London be 38°C on June 24? BUY No 99¢ $13 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $847.93 · official $850.94 (match) · 3500 history records