Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:38:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
AF 0xaf93…0d84 sports 91 markets active 1h ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$879 (+2%) realized +$879 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate48%44W / 47L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$581per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Fees−$780est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,387
7 days−$2,054
14 days−$2,304
30 days+$2,425
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$1,138
crypto 4% −$487
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -22.8% -30.2% 42% 42% -22.0%
≤30d 86 -8.9% -17.6% 50% 49% -2.7%
≤90d 91 -11.6% -20.0% 48% 47% -6.3%
all 91 -11.6% -20.0% 48% 47% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.0% 47% -6.3%
10% ← realistic here -27.7% 45% -15.3%
15% -34.6% 44% -23.4%
20% -41.1% 38% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$662) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$460 vs −$417 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$879
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses44 / 47
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$780
Open positions0
Markets (closed)91 / 91
History coverage46d
Avg bet$581
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 91 Trades
no open positions (41 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $596 +$444 +74%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 12.5 Jun 17 $342 +$258 +75%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $998 −$986 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $308 −$113 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $517 +$480 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $516 −$500 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $313 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $103 +$72 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $743 −$219 -30%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $1,192 +$861 +72%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $841 −$840 -100%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $422 −$419 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $543 +$526 +97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,278 +$666 +52%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $606 −$601 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $996 +$890 +89%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $1,907 −$1,883 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $1,271 +$635 +50%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $138 −$135 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $499 −$492 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $407 −$401 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $280 +$128 +46%
Greece vs. Italy: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $333 +$444 +134%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $448 −$442 -99%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $93 −$93 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $1,146 +$752 +66%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $444 −$164 -37%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $429 −$422 -98%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $583 −$580 -99%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $580 +$420 +72%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $255 +$194 +76%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $323 −$320 -99%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $289 +$211 +73%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $254 −$250 -98%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 03 $696 +$504 +72%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 03 $563 −$560 -100%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Carstensz (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Cl Jun 03 $75 −$75 -100%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 03 $414 +$386 +93%
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $383 +$242 +63%
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Wester Jun 02 $12 −$12 -98%
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Team Lynx - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $198 +$121 +61%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - Esports World Cup Eastern Europe Jun 01 $62 −$33 -54%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner May 31 $23 −$23 -98%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner May 31 $441 +$183 +42%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 1 Winner May 31 $56 −$55 -97%
Dota 2: Team Lynx vs ex-Pipsqueak+4 - Game 2 Winner May 31 $563 +$436 +78%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $496 +$473 +95%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $204 −$200 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 100¢ $1,040 38m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 57¢ $135 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 57¢ $62 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 57¢ $1 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 57¢ $397 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $998 18h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 57¢ $0 18h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 57¢ $3 18h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 57¢ $1 18h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 57¢ $13 18h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 57¢ $325 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $4 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $6 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $4 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $4 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $4 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $10 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $8 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $4 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $4 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $4 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $10 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $20 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $12 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $6 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $4 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $5 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 443 history records