trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | Jun 11 | $10,952 | −$714 | -6% |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect | Jun 05 | $6,540 | −$1,049 | -16% |
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Jun 05 | $410 | −$63 | -15% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Jun 03 | $5,170 | −$1,533 | -30% |
| Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | May 11 | $283 | −$31 | -11% |
| MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? | Apr 24 | $8,200 | −$683 | -8% |
| Trail Blazers vs. Spurs | Apr 20 | $6,560 | +$1,406 | +21% |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Apr 14 | $1,922 | +$161 | +8% |
| Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Apr 09 | $1,468 | −$9 | -1% |
| Heat vs. Raptors | Apr 07 | $5,292 | −$73 | -1% |
| UFC Fight Night: Casey O'Neill vs. Gabriella Fernandes (Women's Flywei | Mar 27 | $5,594 | −$424 | -8% |
| Netanyahu out by April 30? | Mar 23 | $5,988 | +$65 | +1% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | -11.3% | -19.7% | 0% | 0% | -18.6% |
| ≤30d | 4 | -16.9% | -24.8% | 0% | 0% | -22.7% |
| ≤90d | 12 | -5.5% | -14.5% | 25% | 8% | -14.1% |
| all | 12 | -5.5% | -14.5% | 25% | 8% | -14.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -14.5% | 8% | -14.1% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -22.6% | 0% | -22.3% |
| 15% | -30.1% | 0% | -29.8% |
| 20% | -37.0% | 0% | -36.7% |