Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:14:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xaf94…dfe2 sports 64 markets active 9h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$312 (-22%) realized −$305 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%14W / 41L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day22.7pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days+$9
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$42
other 28% −$63
world 4% +$18
politics 3% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-29.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -20.9% -28.4% 26% 26% -8.1%
≤30d 55 -21.9% -29.3% 25% 25% -8.2%
≤90d 55 -21.9% -29.3% 25% 25% -8.2%
all 55 -21.9% -29.3% 25% 25% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.3% 25% -8.2%
10% ← realistic here -36.1% 25% -17.0%
15% -42.3% 22% -25.0%
20% -47.9% 16% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$13 · ×2.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized−$305
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses14 / 41
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions5
Markets (closed)55 / 64
History coverage14d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day22.7
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $50 $42 −$8 (-16%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 61¢ 98¢ $6 $10 +$4 (+62%)
Will Hibachi launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 33¢ 75¢ $2 $6 +$3 (+127%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 58¢ 50¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-13%)
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? Yes 18¢ 14¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Will Hibachi launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 62¢ 25¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $5 +$1 +31%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 18 $6 +$1 +23%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $35 −$3 -10%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $56 −$5 -9%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $2 +$3 +152%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $28 −$13 -48%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $2 $0 -25%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $2 $0 -24%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $7 −$7 -97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $42 −$36 -87%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $136 −$136 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $2 +$1 +37%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $3 −$3 -99%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 18 $106 +$125 +117%
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $7 −$1 -7%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $12 −$8 -70%
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $4 −$2 -68%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $2 −$1 -65%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $3 −$2 -60%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $7 +$18 +270%
Ghana vs. Panama: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $2 −$1 -88%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 17 $6 +$6 +111%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 17 $9 −$2 -16%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$5 -54%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $10 −$5 -56%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10 −$6 -63%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $8 −$7 -88%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 −$4 -82%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 −$9 -92%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $6 −$2 -40%
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $7 −$2 -23%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $9 −$1 -14%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $9 +$5 +50%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $12 −$10 -84%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $61 −$60 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $6 −$5 -88%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $4 −$2 -56%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $85 −$78 -92%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $4 −$4 -95%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $51 +$261 +510%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 16 $5 $0 -8%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $51 +$31 +62%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $21 +$14 +65%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$49 +97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -94%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -94%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $52 +$21 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18 BUY 35¢ $25 8h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Colombia 30¢ $12 16h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $10 17h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Uzbekistan 41¢ $2 17h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 60¢ $25 17h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 SELL Under 28¢ $34 17h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 SELL Over 29¢ $1 17h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 20¢ $1 17h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 14¢ $1 17h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $2 17h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under $0 17h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 SELL Under 22¢ $1 17h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under $0 17h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under $0 17h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under $0 17h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under $0 17h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under $0 17h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 87¢ $6 17h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 87¢ $3 17h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 87¢ $9 17h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 87¢ $9 17h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 87¢ $9 17h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 70¢ $7 17h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 BUY Under 25¢ $1 17h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $4 17h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $4 17h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $4 17h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $4 17h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $4 17h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $4 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.68 · official $63.68 (match) · 354 history records