Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:29:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xaf94…86fa crypto 54 markets active 2h ago coverage 204d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$174 (+3%) realized +$174 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate92%49W / 4L
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$167
other 2% −$1
crypto 1% $0
finance 1% +$5
tech 0% $0
weather 0% $0
economics 0% $0
world 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -3.0% -12.2% 0% 0% -12.2%
≤30d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 89% 0% -11.1%
≤90d 22 +0.1% -9.4% 95% 0% -10.6%
all 53 -1.0% -10.5% 92% 4% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 4% -6.7%
10% -19.0% 2% -15.6%
15% -26.9% 2% -23.8%
20% -34.0% 2% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 98% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$34 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.26 per $1 lost it wins $2.26
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

204d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized+$174
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses49 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage204d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? No 97¢ 99¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $46 −$1 -3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $30 in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma Jun 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in May? Jun 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May? Jun 02 $4 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 Jun 02 $4 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? Jun 02 $5 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $190 on May 6? Jun 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on May 4? May 06 $1 $0 +2%
Will XRP dip to $1.20 on May 3? May 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.55 on May 3? May 06 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on May 4? May 06 $2 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.60 on May 3? May 06 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 58-59°F on May 4? May 06 $2 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.50 on May 3? May 06 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 on May 3? May 06 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 on May 3? May 06 $2 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.25 on May 3? May 06 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C or higher on May 4? May 06 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 54-55°F on May 4? May 06 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,450 on May 3? May 06 $3 $0 +1%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 9? Mar 09 $30 +$5 +17%
Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the February Meeti Mar 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 4 be between 1,90 Mar 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Bank of Mexico announce an increase at the February meeting? Mar 09 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the February meeting? Mar 09 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the February meeting? Mar 09 $4 $0 +1%
Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after February 2026 Mar 09 $4 $0 +0%
No change in Bank of England's interest rates after February 2026 meet Mar 09 $6 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Feb 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca Feb 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the third-largest company in the world by market Feb 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o Feb 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of January 12 above $215? Feb 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of January 12 above $275? Feb 05 $3 $0 +1%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ja Feb 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Januar Feb 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Jan 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Jan 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jan 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31? Jan 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $8,000 by December 31? Jan 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $6,000 by December 31? Jan 13 $2 $0 +0%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December Jan 13 $2 $0 +1%
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? Jan 13 $2 $0 +2%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 18? Jan 13 $2 $0 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Jan 13 $2 $0 +3%
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 18 $4,862 −$5 -0%
Utah vs. Red Wings Dec 18 $279 +$302 +108%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $45 1h
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $43 1h
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 1h
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $27 16d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $190 on May 6? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 43d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma BUY No 100¢ $2 43d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY No 100¢ $2 43d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 BUY No 100¢ $4 43d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $30 in May? BUY No 100¢ $2 43d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in May? BUY No 100¢ $3 43d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May? BUY No 100¢ $4 43d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? BUY No 99¢ $5 43d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on May 4? BUY No 98¢ $1 46d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on May 4? BUY No 100¢ $2 46d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C or higher on May 4? BUY No 100¢ $2 46d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 58-59°F on May 4? BUY No 100¢ $2 46d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 54-55°F on May 4? BUY No 100¢ $3 46d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 on May 3? BUY No 100¢ $2 46d
Will Ethereum reach $2,450 on May 3? BUY No 99¢ $3 46d
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 on May 3? BUY No 100¢ $2 46d
Will XRP dip to $1.20 on May 3? BUY No 100¢ $1 46d
Will XRP dip to $1.25 on May 3? BUY No 100¢ $2 46d
Will XRP reach $1.50 on May 3? BUY No 100¢ $2 46d
Will XRP reach $1.55 on May 3? BUY No 100¢ $2 46d
Will XRP reach $1.60 on May 3? BUY No 100¢ $2 46d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 9? SELL Up 7¢ $35 101d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 9? BUY Up 6¢ $30 101d
Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the February meeting? BUY No 100¢ $3 134d
Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the February meeting? BUY Yes 99¢ $4 134d
Will the Bank of Mexico announce an increase at the February meeting? BUY No 100¢ $3 134d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.29 · official $27.29 (match) · 125 history records