trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | +0.1% | -9.4% | 20% | 0% | -9.4% |
| ≤30d | 10 | -3.8% | -13.0% | 10% | 0% | -13.9% |
| ≤90d | 12 | -5.0% | -14.0% | 8% | 0% | -14.6% |
| all | 32 | -4.6% | -13.6% | 12% | 3% | -14.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -13.6% | 3% | -14.7% |
| 10% | -21.9% | 0% | -22.8% |
| 15% | -29.5% | 0% | -30.3% |
| 20% | -36.4% | 0% | -37.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 65¢ | 66¢ | $29 | $29 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Jun 19 | $26 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 18 | $27 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 18 | $29 | $0 | +0% |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Jun 18 | $26 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Jun 17 | $26 | $0 | +0% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | May 26 | $30 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | May 25 | $29 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma | May 24 | $28 | −$1 | -5% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | May 23 | $38 | −$11 | -29% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | May 23 | $6 | $0 | -4% |
| Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? | Mar 25 | $19 | −$3 | -17% |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Mar 23 | $10 | $0 | -4% |
| Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025? | Jan 31 | $21 | −$21 | -100% |
| Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? | Nov 23 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? | Nov 22 | $30 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Nov 22 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? | Nov 22 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Miami vs. Virginia Tech | Nov 22 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Panthers vs. 49ers | Nov 21 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Nov 21 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele | Nov 20 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump be impeached in 2025? | Nov 05 | $26 | +$1 | +3% |
| Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? | Sep 29 | $27 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Sep 29 | $25 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? | Sep 29 | $1 | $0 | +13% |
| Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Sep 28 | $26 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Sep 27 | $26 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? | Sep 26 | $20 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Sep 26 | $35 | −$1 | -2% |
| Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? | Sep 26 | $27 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Sep 25 | $27 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? | Sep 25 | $27 | $0 | +0% |