Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:29:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xaf96…ca06 other 15 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$113 (-22%) realized −$118 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +55% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +30% what you keep after slip
Net edge+30%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%5W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day11.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$66
sports 26% −$9
crypto 12% −$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+40.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +55.3% +40.5% 36% 36% -31.6%
≤30d 14 +55.3% +40.5% 36% 36% -31.6%
≤90d 14 +55.3% +40.5% 36% 36% -31.6%
all 14 +55.3% +40.5% 36% 36% -31.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +40.5% 36% -31.6%
10% +27.1% 21% -38.2%
15% +14.8% 14% -44.1%
20% +3.5% 14% -49.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 56% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +55% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +174% → late -63% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$23 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$118
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses5 / 9
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage2d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day11.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 4¢ $10 $2 −$7 (-78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $66 +$11 +17%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $59 −$51 -86%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 −$19 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $64 −$63 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $78 +$20 +26%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 −$19 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $29 −$29 -99%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 +$31 +1519%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $99 +$12 +13%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$17 +86%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$19 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 24m
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $9 25m
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $77 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 7¢ $8 5h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 85¢ $66 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $59 7h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 15h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 15h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 15h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $20 22h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 23h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $59 23h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 79¢ $98 24h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 25h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $29 26h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $49 27h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $29 30h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $33 30h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 93¢ $111 31h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 31h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 31h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $99 35h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 91¢ $37 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.15 · official $2.15 (match) · 26 history records