Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:13:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

AF 0xaf98…49fa other 28 markets active 3h ago coverage 12d

RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$20 (+30%) realized +$25 · open −$5

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +39% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +26% what you keep after slip

Net edge+26%after slip

Net WR57%break-even

Win rate57%13W / 10L

Drawdown20%max

Avg bet$2per market

Trades / day2.6pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit43%portable

Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$15

7 days+$22

14 days+$25

30 days+$25

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +57%

net ROI/market (all)+25.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	22	+33.7%	+20.9%	55%	55%	+35.3%
≤30d	23	+39.1%	+25.9%	57%	57%	+39.6%
≤90d	23	+39.1%	+25.9%	57%	57%	+39.6%
all	23	+39.1%	+25.9%	57%	57%	+39.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.6 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+25.9%	57%	+39.6%
10%	+13.8%	57%	+26.2%
15%	+2.8%	57%	+14.1%
20%	-7.3%	57%	+2.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +53% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +39% · $-wt +53% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +37% → late +41% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.69 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×3.49 per $1 lost it wins $3.49

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage

Net worth$14

Realized+$25

Unrealized−$5

Win rate (resolved)57%

Wins / losses13 / 10

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions5

Markets (closed)23 / 28

History coverage12d

Avg bet$2

Trades / day2.6

Drawdown20%

Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 23 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	69¢	68¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	64¢	64¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	68¢	68¢	$3	$3	−$0 (-1%)
Evo Morales arrested by June 30?	Yes	36¢	24¢	$1	$1	−$0 (-35%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	11¢	1¢	$5	$0	−$5 (-94%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$6	+$3	+55%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$5	+$3	+52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$5	+$4	+73%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$3	+$4	+124%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$2	+$1	+62%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$1	+$1	+93%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5	Jun 17	$1	+$1	+124%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$7	+$4	+55%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$1	+$2	+158%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$1	−$1	-97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	Jun 16	$1	−$1	-98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$1	−$1	-98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	Jun 16	$1	+$2	+172%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$1	−$1	-98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Jun 15	$1	+$5	+474%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$1	−$1	-98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$1	+$3	+250%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Jun 15	$2	−$1	-72%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?	Jun 14	$1	−$1	-71%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	Jun 14	$1	−$1	-80%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$1	−$1	-98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$1	−$1	-98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$2	+$3	+158%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	64¢	$5	3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$3	3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	69¢	$5	3h
Evo Morales arrested by June 30?	BUY Yes	36¢	$1	16h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	64¢	$6	22h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	57¢	$5	24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	65¢	$5	35h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	44¢	$3	35h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$2	2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	44¢	$1	3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	51¢	$1	3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5	BUY Over	38¢	$1	4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	64¢	$7	4d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	8¢	$1	4d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	22¢	$1	4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	42¢	$1	5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	24¢	$1	5d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	BUY Yes	36¢	$1	5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	37¢	$1	5d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	BUY Yes	17¢	$1	5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	BUY No	15¢	$1	6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	SELL No	15¢	$1	6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?	SELL No	2¢	$0	6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	SELL No	1¢	$0	6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?	BUY No	7¢	$1	6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	BUY No	27¢	$1	6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	BUY No	5¢	$1	6d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	28¢	$1	6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	47¢	$1	6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	26¢	$1	6d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.85 · official $13.85 (match) · 45 history records