Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T07:17:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AF
0xaf9c…3681
weather · 175 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$201 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$197 · open +$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,374
Realized+$197
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses165 / 2
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions8
Markets (closed)167 / 175
History coverage12d
Avg bet$230
Trades / day59.7
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 8 History 167 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days+$174
14 days+$197
30 days+$197
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C or higher on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $320 $324 +$4 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? No 99¢ 98¢ $290 $287 −$3 (-1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 13? Yes 99¢ 98¢ $225 $223 −$2 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $200 $201 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $110 $111 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $85 $86 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 2? No 86¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C or below on June 2? No 97¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $600 +$2 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $200 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $110 +$4 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $217 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $45 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $16 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $200 +$2 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 11? Jun 11 $200 +$6 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $320 +$5 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $212 +$6 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $200 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1,065 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $140 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $80 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $30 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 11? Jun 10 $100 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 11? Jun 10 $1,450 +$5 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $220 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 10? Jun 10 $100 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 10? Jun 10 $55 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on June 10? Jun 10 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $400 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $350 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $600 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 10? Jun 10 $575 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $350 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $600 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $87 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $17 +$2 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $55 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $90 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 9? Jun 09 $40 +$1 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on June 9? Jun 09 $112 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $120 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $500 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $110 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $215 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $670 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 9? Jun 09 $262 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on June 9? Jun 09 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 9? Jun 09 $300 +$3 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 99% +$199
other 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $20 6m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $70 18m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $100 20m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $100 27m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 99¢ $85 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $60 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $50 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $101 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $40 3h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $602 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 4h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $600 5h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $100 5h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $200 8h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 13? BUY Yes 99¢ $25 8h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 13? BUY Yes 99¢ $200 8h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $20 8h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $100 8h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $201 15h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 15h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 15h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $219 18h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 20h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $5 20h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $45 22h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $16 22h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 12? SELL Yes 100¢ $202 22h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 12? BUY Yes 99¢ $200 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 98 +1.2% -8.4% 100% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 167 +0.2% -9.4% 99% 1% -9.0%
≤90d 167 +0.2% -9.4% 99% 1% -9.0%
all 167 +0.2% -9.4% 99% 1% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover59.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 1% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.0% 0% -17.8%
15% -26.0% 0% -25.7%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,374.01 · official $1,374.01 (match) · 736 history records