Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:21:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AF 0xaf9e…a250 sports 111 markets active 3d ago coverage 132d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 132d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$9,591 (-1%) realized −$9,614 · open +$23
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate32%50W / 104L
Whale WR41%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9,451per market
Trades / day25.6pace
Fees−$868est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$132now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 132d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$40,864
other 14% −$442
world 2% +$23,617
politics 1% +$131
tech 0% +$31
crypto 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-27.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 55 -77.3% -79.4% 11% 9% -87.1%
≤90d 82 -57.0% -61.1% 20% 12% -64.9%
all 154 -19.9% -27.5% 32% 26% -33.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.6 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.5% 26% -33.0%
10% -34.5% 25% -39.4%
15% ← realistic here -40.8% 24% -45.3%
20% -46.6% 19% -50.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -61% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 41% (≥$10,200) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +20% → late -59% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
26.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6,012 vs −$6,057 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$132
Realized−$9,614
Unrealized+$23
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses50 / 104
Whale WR (big bets)41%
Est. fees paid−$868
Open positions1
Markets (closed)154 / 111
History coverage132d ⚠
Avg bet$9,451
Trades / day25.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 154 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 68¢ 82¢ $109 $132 +$23 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 87 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Pacers vs. Magic Jun 17 $2,566 −$2,566 -100%
Jazz vs. Clippers Jun 17 $510 −$510 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Pelicans Jun 17 $370 −$370 -100%
Jazz vs. Warriors Jun 17 $1,720 −$1,720 -100%
Kings vs. Knicks Jun 17 $2,801 −$2,801 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5) Jun 17 $1,775 −$1,775 -100%
Rockets vs. Nets Jun 17 $760 −$760 -100%
Panthers vs. Buccaneers Jun 17 $2,086 −$2,086 -100%
Magic vs. Pacers Jun 17 $5,843 −$5,843 -100%
Bulls vs. Heat Jun 17 $25,900 −$25,900 -100%
Spurs vs. Jazz Jun 17 $1,680 −$1,680 -100%
Thunder vs. Timberwolves Jun 17 $13,200 −$13,200 -100%
Bucks vs. Hawks Jun 17 $10,688 −$10,688 -100%
Hornets vs. Bulls Jun 17 $980 −$980 -100%
76ers vs. Mavericks Jun 17 $5,509 −$5,509 -100%
Jazz vs. Mavericks Jun 17 $4,300 −$4,300 -100%
Heat vs. Warriors Jun 17 $2,720 −$2,720 -100%
Hornets vs. Magic Jun 17 $21,000 −$21,000 -100%
Raptors vs. Trail Blazers Jun 17 $4,480 −$4,480 -100%
Hawks vs. Raptors Jun 17 $2,926 −$2,926 -100%
Warriors vs. Hornets Jun 17 $4,353 −$4,353 -100%
Bucks vs. 76ers Jun 17 $3,578 −$3,578 -100%
Knicks vs. 76ers Jun 17 $5,199 −$5,199 -100%
Warriors vs. Timberwolves Jun 17 $13,400 −$13,400 -100%
Spurs vs. Pacers Jun 17 $2,240 −$2,240 -100%
Pistons vs. Nuggets Jun 17 $2,900 −$2,900 -100%
Flyers vs. Canucks Jun 17 $2,151 −$2,151 -100%
Knicks vs. Pistons Jun 17 $14,378 −$14,378 -100%
Cavaliers vs. 76ers Jun 17 $8,550 −$8,550 -100%
Magic vs. Heat Jun 17 $1,686 −$1,686 -100%
Pacers vs. Hornets Jun 17 $9,450 −$9,450 -100%
Clippers vs. Raptors Jun 17 $11,000 −$11,000 -100%
Spurs vs. Grizzlies Jun 17 $10,050 −$10,050 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Heat Jun 17 $3,673 −$3,673 -100%
76ers vs. Knicks Jun 17 $3,828 −$3,828 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Wizards Jun 17 $13,800 −$13,800 -100%
Spread: Seahawks (-2.5) Jun 17 $7,400 −$7,400 -100%
Lakers vs. Pelicans Jun 17 $1,300 −$1,300 -100%
Pelicans vs. Spurs Jun 17 $20,450 −$20,450 -100%
Clippers vs. Jazz Jun 17 $2,700 −$2,700 -100%
Pistons vs. Suns Jun 17 $11,600 −$11,600 -100%
Raptors vs. Magic Jun 17 $13,099 −$13,099 -100%
Mavericks vs. Knicks Jun 17 $24,900 −$24,900 -100%
Kings vs. Clippers Jun 17 $2,200 −$2,200 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $6,851 −$6,750 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $23,621 −$18,228 -77%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 09 $1,052 −$1,035 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $10,083 −$5,538 -55%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 09 $2,190 +$1,810 +83%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $2,865 +$3,135 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Spurs 50¢ $6,851 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 88¢ $2,159 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 96¢ $240 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 96¢ $115 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 96¢ $5,441 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 96¢ $115 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 96¢ $115 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 96¢ $2,030 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 96¢ $115 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 96¢ $115 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 96¢ $115 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 96¢ $7,680 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks $563 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $1,115 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $1,031 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $3,233 6d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 45¢ $1,052 7d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 37¢ $3,780 8d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 37¢ $184 8d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 37¢ $24 8d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 37¢ $13 8d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 37¢ $11 8d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 37¢ $1 8d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 37¢ $23 8d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 37¢ $441 8d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 37¢ $22 8d
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) BUY Spurs 54¢ $2,190 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $2,865 8d
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) BUY Knicks 49¢ $1,492 11d
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) BUY Knicks 48¢ $996 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $131.88 · official $131.88 (match) · 3500 history records