Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:26:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AF
0xaf9e…7f9a
crypto · 71 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$26 -13%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$26 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses31 / 39
Open positions1
Markets (closed)70 / 71
History coverage91d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 70 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$8
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Up 56¢ 74¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+31%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$3 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$3 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$2 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$4 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Mar 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Mar 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Mar 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Mar 19 $30 −$10 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Mar 17 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Mar 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Mar 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Mar 17 $2 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Mar 17 $1 +$1 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Mar 17 $1 +$2 +171%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Mar 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Mar 17 $6 +$6 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Mar 17 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Mar 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Mar 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Mar 17 $1 +$1 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Mar 17 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Mar 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Mar 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Mar 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Mar 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Mar 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Mar 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $2 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $2 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $9 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $6 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-22.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -5.2% -14.2% 50% 46% +4.6%
≤30d 26 -5.2% -14.2% 50% 46% +4.6%
≤90d 63 -24.3% -31.5% 40% 38% -29.9%
all 70 -14.4% -22.6% 44% 43% -21.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.6% 43% -21.3%
10% -30.0% 43% -28.8%
15% -36.7% 40% -35.7%
20% -42.9% 39% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.31 · official $0.88 (match) · 161 history records