Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:28:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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AF 0xaf9f…624c sports 1118 markets active 1h ago coverage 394d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Covers last 394d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,276 (-24%) realized −$5,245 · open −$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate30%333W / 772L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$77est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days−$177
14 days−$194
30 days−$529
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 30% −$997
sports 29% −$566
other 16% −$467
finance 11% −$196
tech 5% −$29
world 4% −$85
politics 3% −$186
economics 2% −$103
culture 0% −$68
weather 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-26.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -44.6% -49.9% 16% 16% -45.1%
≤30d 77 -43.2% -48.6% 26% 21% -37.2%
≤90d 370 -24.9% -32.0% 31% 24% -19.7%
all 1105 -19.1% -26.8% 30% 24% -21.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.8% 24% -21.0%
10% -33.8% 20% -28.5%
15% -40.2% 18% -35.4%
20% -46.1% 15% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$10 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

394d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$5,245
Unrealized−$31
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses333 / 772
Est. fees paid−$77
Open positions13
Markets (closed)1105 / 1118
History coverage394d ⚠
Avg bet$19
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 1105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? No 48¢ 46¢ $38 $37 −$1 (-3%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+125%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+17%)
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 11¢ 1¢ $25 $2 −$23 (-91%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-41%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-25%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-25%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-75%)
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-83%)
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 4¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 18 $48 +$20 +41%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 14 $80 −$47 -59%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $4 −$1 -12%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $11 +$6 +57%
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight Jun 14 $14 −$8 -60%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $19 −$6 -32%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 13 $155 −$61 -39%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $14 +$36 +262%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in May? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Golden Knights win the 2026 Stanley Cup 4-2 be the exact series o Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in May? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 10? Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Nithya Raman finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ange Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Karen Bass finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angele Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the Bank of Canada announce an increase at the June meeting? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the Bank of Canada announce a 25 bps decrease at the June meeting Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $11 $0 -5%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $16 −$9 -60%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 11 $50 +$19 +37%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $56 −$37 -66%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 09 $139 +$21 +15%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $11 +$1 +5%
Will Karen Bass finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Angel Jun 09 $9 −$9 -100%
First round outright winner in the LA Mayoral Election? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Spencer Pratt finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 09 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Trump speak to Mark Carney in June? Jun 09 $5 −$1 -20%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $25 −$11 -44%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 8? Jun 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 09 $40 +$7 +18%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 09 $16 +$4 +27%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Jun 09 $29 −$2 -7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 09 $50 +$3 +6%
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 08 $16 −$5 -29%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 08 $91 +$19 +21%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $1 $0 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $3 $0 -11%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $21 −$8 -40%
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meetin Jun 08 $4 −$4 -95%
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $21 +$23 +108%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $11 +$4 +37%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 07 $11 +$11 +94%
Will the US lose jobs in May? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the US add between 0 and 50k jobs in May? Jun 06 $8 −$8 -100%
Will lululemon athletica (LULU) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 05 $31 −$13 -41%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on May 30? Jun 02 $11 −$11 -100%
Will MongoDB (MDB) beat quarterly earnings? May 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Costco Wholesale (COST) beat quarterly earnings? May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Dell Technologies (DELL) beat quarterly earnings? May 30 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 48¢ $39 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL Yes 47¢ $39 1h
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $45 4d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 4d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $17 4d
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight SELL No 4¢ $6 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 27¢ $13 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 38¢ $19 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? SELL No 7¢ $25 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY No 16¢ $50 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 43¢ $10 6d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 21¢ $10 6d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 8¢ $7 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL No 13¢ $6 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY No 18¢ $17 6d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? SELL No 16¢ $15 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 10? BUY No 25¢ $18 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? SELL No 7¢ $19 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? BUY No 18¢ $56 8d
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in May? BUY Yes 18¢ $8 8d
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in May? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 8d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY No 20¢ $21 8d
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 4¢ $1 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 31¢ $16 8d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 8d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $9 8d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 8d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 8d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 8d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.87 · official $55.87 (match) · 3500 history records