Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:20:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AF 0xafa2…e049 crypto 342 markets active 2d ago coverage 147d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate67%225W / 110L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% −$11
sports 17% +$6
other 4% −$13
politics 0% $0
weather 0% $0
finance 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +10.6% +0.1% 67% 58% -2.2%
≤30d 35 +3.7% -6.2% 74% 43% -6.0%
≤90d 64 -1.0% -10.4% 66% 31% -11.9%
all 335 +0.1% -9.4% 67% 43% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 43% -10.7%
10% -18.1% 24% -19.2%
15% -26.0% 12% -27.0%
20% -33.2% 6% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses225 / 110
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)335 / 342
History coverage147d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 335 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 59¢ 64¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 72¢ 74¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 68¢ 69¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +40%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +48%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +76%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +56%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +42%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 10 $4 $0 +4%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $2 +$1 +38%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $3 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C or higher on May 23? Jun 07 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C or higher on May 23? Jun 07 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on May 23? Jun 07 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 18 $3 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 18 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 18 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 18 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 18 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 18 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 18 $3 +$1 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 18 $3 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 18 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 18 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 18 $3 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 18 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 18 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 18 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 18 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET May 17 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 17 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 17 $4 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 17 $5 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 17 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 17 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 17 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 17 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 17 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET May 17 $2 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET May 17 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 17 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 17 $2 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET May 17 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET May 17 $2 $0 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 39h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 75¢ $1 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 88¢ $1 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $2 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 6d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 96¢ $4 8d
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY paiN 72¢ $2 9d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $3 9d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY BetBoom Team 97¢ $3 9d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C or higher on May 23? BUY No 97¢ $1 25d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C or higher on May 23? BUY No 98¢ $1 25d
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on May 23? BUY No 97¢ $1 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $3 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.10 · official $7.10 (match) · 1188 history records