Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:31:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AF
0xafa4…0dfe
other · 267 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$630 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$483 · open +$89
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,329
Realized+$483
Unrealized+$89
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses180 / 48
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions39
Markets (closed)228 / 267
History coverage146d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit49%
Chart Positions 39 History 228 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$27
14 days+$35
30 days+$180
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Italy replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 100¢ $337 $380 +$43 (+13%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 90¢ 92¢ $271 $276 +$5 (+2%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 90¢ 94¢ $107 $112 +$5 (+5%)
Will Frenkie de Jong be in Netherlands's Starting 11? Yes 91¢ 93¢ $55 $56 +$1 (+2%)
World Cup: Winless Team? Yes 97¢ 99¢ $39 $40 +$1 (+2%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 72¢ $34 $36 +$2 (+6%)
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 75¢ 79¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+5%)
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Yes 76¢ 99¢ $23 $30 +$7 (+30%)
Will Morgan Rogers be in England's Starting 11? No 10¢ 44¢ $6 $26 +$21 (+359%)
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 80¢ 80¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? No 89¢ 97¢ $18 $19 +$2 (+9%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 69¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+7%)
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 62¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+4%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 94¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+4%)
Will Crysencio Summerville be in Netherlands's Starting 11? Yes 48¢ 52¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+7%)
Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2026? No 80¢ 84¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+6%)
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 40¢ 41¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+2%)
World Cup: Scoreless Team? Yes 75¢ 80¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+7%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $16 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+31%)
Will Gonçalo Inácio be in Portugal's Starting 11? Yes 51¢ 44¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-14%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 62¢ $13 $12 −$0 (-4%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-6%)
Will China blockade Taiwan by in 2026? No 86¢ 92¢ $10 $10 +$1 (+7%)
Hantavirus outbreak by June 30? No 75¢ 99¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Marcus Rashford be in England's Starting 11? Jun 12 $4 +$17 +448%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $16 +$1 +4%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $14 +$1 +6%
Will Batrider be the most banned hero at BLAST Slam VII? Jun 08 $221 +$5 +2%
Will UAE replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $1 +$3 +315%
Will GamerLegion qualify to Stage 2 at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 05 $25 +$2 +9%
Will MIBR qualify to Stage 2 at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 05 $24 +$2 +9%
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $99 +$1 +1%
Will SpaceX have exactly 12 launches in May? Jun 01 $169 +$7 +4%
Will SpaceX have 14 or more launches in May? Jun 01 $125 −$8 -6%
Will SpaceX have exactly 11 launches in May? Jun 01 $78 +$3 +4%
Will SpaceX have exactly 10 launches in May? May 30 $36 $0 +1%
Will SpaceX have exactly 9 launches in May? May 27 $114 +$1 +1%
Will France score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $19 +$6 +30%
Will SpaceX have less than or equal to 8 launches in May? May 25 $345 +$2 +1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $7 +$2 +22%
Pep Guardiola out as Manchester City manager by the end of 2026? May 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will SpaceX have exactly 13 launches in May? May 23 $2 $0 -2%
No one announced as next James Bond? May 23 $7 +$2 +35%
Will Neymar be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list May 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Will "Michael" 4th Weekend Box Office be greater than 25m? May 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 18 $39 +$16 +41%
Will Team Spirit qualify for the DreamLeague Season 29 Playoffs? May 18 $6 +$6 +100%
Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027? May 18 $15 +$3 +18%
Will "Goose" be said during the IEM Atlanta 2026 Grand Finals? May 18 $144 +$1 +1%
Will "Banana" be said 10+ times during the IEM Atlanta 2026 Grand Fina May 18 $124 +$1 +1%
Will Manchester City win the 2025-2026 FA Cup? May 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Trump say "Taiwan" during Bret Baier interview? May 15 $12 +$3 +21%
Will Trump say "Soybean" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $0 +$1 +245%
Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $22 +$28 +126%
Will China announce a U.S. oil purchase by May 22? May 15 $20 +$1 +5%
Will Trump say "Sovereign" or "Sovereignty" during Chinese State Banqu May 15 $6 +$4 +64%
Will Trump say "Ship" or "Chip" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $3 +$3 +104%
Will Trump say "Heaven" during Chinese State Banquet? May 14 $15 −$4 -24%
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $8 +$6 +75%
Will Trump say "Ancient" during Chinese State Banquet? May 14 $115 +$70 +61%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? May 14 $24 +$2 +7%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $13 +$10 +78%
Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $8 −$8 -99%
Will FaZe Clan qualify to IEM Atlanta 2026 Playoffs? May 14 $257 +$3 +1%
Will M80 qualify to IEM Atlanta 2026 Playoffs? May 14 $25 $0 +1%
Will Trump and Xi only be photographed together during the day of thei May 14 $30 $0 +2%
Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22? May 13 $14 +$2 +17%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 13 $54 +$15 +29%
Will Trump say "Japan" or "Korea" during events with Xi Jinping? May 13 $15 +$3 +17%
Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit? May 12 $14 +$1 +8%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and May 12 $74 +$5 +6%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 40m and May 11 $6 −$1 -15%
Will Nottingham Forest qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEF May 08 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest reach the UEFA Europa League final? May 07 $49 +$9 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 44% +$320
tech 20% +$98
sports 12% −$36
culture 9% −$108
world 8% +$111
politics 3% +$130
economics 3% +$58
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Marcus Rashford be in England's Starting 11? SELL No 74¢ $15 1h
Will Gonçalo Inácio be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY Yes 51¢ $16 1h
Will Renato Veiga be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 1h
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 10¢ $2 2h
Will Marcus Rashford be in England's Starting 11? SELL No 27¢ $5 2h
Will Marcus Rashford be in England's Starting 11? BUY No 9¢ $4 4h
Will Morgan Rogers be in England's Starting 11? BUY No 10¢ $2 4h
Will Morgan Rogers be in England's Starting 11? BUY No 9¢ $4 4h
Will Jude Bellingham be in England's Starting 11? BUY No 21¢ $9 4h
Will Pedro Porro be in Spain's Starting 11? BUY No 70¢ $4 4h
Will Marcos Llorente be in Spain's Starting 11? BUY No 16¢ $1 4h
Will Frenkie de Jong be in Netherlands's Starting 11? BUY Yes 91¢ $46 4h
Will Frenkie de Jong be in Netherlands's Starting 11? BUY Yes 91¢ $9 5h
Will Crysencio Summerville be in Netherlands's Starting 11? BUY Yes 48¢ $16 5h
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 10¢ $0 20h
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 10¢ $2 20h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 54¢ $16 20h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 48¢ $14 23h
World Cup: Scoreless Team? BUY Yes 75¢ $15 27h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $6 32h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $16 2d
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 30¢ $11 2d
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 30¢ $2 2d
World Cup: Scoreless Team? BUY No 15¢ $3 2d
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 30¢ $0 3d
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 30¢ $2 3d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $13 5d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 5d
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $18 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +155.1% +130.8% 100% 40% +0.2%
≤30d 44 +30.8% +18.3% 82% 41% -2.4%
≤90d 148 +15.6% +4.6% 74% 27% -5.5%
all 228 +10.2% -0.3% 79% 23% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.3% 23% -5.9%
10% -9.9% 18% -14.9%
15% -18.6% 14% -23.1%
20% -26.5% 12% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,329.47 · official $1,329.37 (match) · 1038 history records