Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:13:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
AF 0xafa6…db93 sports 11 markets active 5d ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$12 (+11%) realized +$6 · open +$6
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%5W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% +$10
sports 38% +$5
world 19% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-37.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -17.6% -25.5% 57% 57% +7.6%
≤30d 10 -31.3% -37.8% 50% 50% -4.2%
≤90d 10 -31.3% -37.8% 50% 50% -4.2%
all 10 -31.3% -37.8% 50% 50% -4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.8% 50% -4.2%
10% -43.8% 30% -13.4%
15% -49.2% 20% -21.8%
20% -54.2% 10% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage3d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 59¢ 94¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mitch Marner score the most goals in a single game during the 202 Jun 15 $4 +$1 +15%
Will LYON win LCS 2026 Spring? Jun 15 $35 +$10 +29%
Will Team Liquid win LCS 2026 Spring? Jun 15 $6 +$5 +75%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $20 +$9 +46%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Bilibili Gaming qualify to MSI 2026? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -90%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.02 · official $16.02 (match) · 20 history records