Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:51:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AF
0xafa7…2cee
other · 18 markets active 10h ago
6.5score
+$3,901 +54%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$4,046 · open −$13
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,118
Realized+$4,046
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses7 / 8
Open positions3
Markets (closed)15 / 18
History coverage130d
Avg bet$398
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit11%
Chart Positions 3 History 15 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$3,121
14 days+$3,121
30 days+$2,477
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? No 74¢ 86¢ $587 $680 +$93 (+16%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? No 54¢ 44¢ $469 $388 −$81 (-17%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 38¢ 24¢ $75 $49 −$26 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $55 +$15 +27%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? Jun 09 $30 +$41 +136%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1,752 +$780 +45%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $1,179 +$2,284 +194%
Claude 4.8 released by May 31? May 29 $1,074 +$348 +32%
Will Claude 4.7 not be released by April 30, 2026? May 29 $13 −$13 -100%
Claude 4.7 released by April 17? May 29 $268 −$268 -100%
Will Claude 4.7 be released on or prior to April 16, 2026? May 29 $164 −$164 -100%
Claude 4.7 released by April 24? May 29 $256 −$256 -100%
Claude 4.7 released by April 30? May 29 $289 −$289 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 8? Apr 15 $25 −$25 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026? Feb 20 $259 +$1,528 +591%
Gemini 3.5 released by March 31? Feb 19 $205 −$101 -49%
Will Claude 5 be released by February 14, 2026? Feb 10 $38 +$166 +436%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 100% +$4,057
crypto 0% −$25
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 44¢ $132 10h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY No 61¢ $50 11h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? SELL Yes 33¢ $96 11h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? SELL Yes 24¢ $70 11h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? SELL Yes 20¢ $15 11h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? SELL Yes 20¢ $20 11h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 11h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? SELL Yes 20¢ $8 12h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 60¢ $197 12h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 60¢ $46 12h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 60¢ $6 12h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 60¢ $3 13h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 60¢ $5 13h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 63¢ $58 13h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY No 79¢ $150 13h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY No 76¢ $219 13h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 42¢ $26 13h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY No 65¢ $35 13h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY Yes 46¢ $3 13h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY Yes 45¢ $46 13h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY Yes 45¢ $9 13h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY Yes 45¢ $135 13h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY Yes 67¢ $137 13h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY Yes 41¢ $76 13h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY No 80¢ $16 13h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY No 61¢ $25 13h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 38¢ $77 13h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY No 80¢ $97 13h
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $30 5d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $98 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+39.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +100.4% +81.3% 100% 100% +84.1%
≤30d 10 -6.6% -15.5% 50% 50% +34.6%
≤90d 12 -13.8% -22.1% 42% 42% +33.9%
all 15 +54.1% +39.4% 47% 47% +55.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +39.4% 47% +55.7%
10% +26.1% 47% +40.8%
15% +13.9% 33% +27.2%
20% +2.7% 27% +14.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,117.60 · official $1,117.60 (match) · 240 history records