Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:50:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xafa7…dfac other 82 markets active 1h ago coverage 213d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$119 (+1%) realized +$84 · open +$35
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate57%41W / 31L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$163per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$700now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$50
14 days+$178
30 days+$196
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 78% +$27
other 17% +$214
sports 4% −$1
tech 1% −$43
culture 0% −$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-23.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +5.6% -4.4% 100% 9% -2.9%
≤30d 17 +12.1% +1.4% 88% 18% +3.6%
≤90d 19 +9.9% -0.5% 79% 16% -0.9%
all 72 -15.7% -23.8% 57% 25% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.8% 25% -8.6%
10% -31.1% 15% -17.4%
15% -37.7% 6% -25.4%
20% -43.8% 3% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -22% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$39 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

213d coverage
Net worth$700
Realized+$84
Unrealized+$35
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses41 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions10
Markets (closed)72 / 82
History coverage213d
Avg bet$163
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 95¢ 99¢ $460 $481 +$21 (+5%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more? Yes 86¢ 96¢ $108 $120 +$12 (+11%)
Will Robert Kenyon finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $62 $62 +$0 (+0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+49%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+32%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-19%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $4 −$1 (-21%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? Jun 19 $94 +$15 +16%
Will Thomas Frank be the next manager of Elche CF? Jun 16 $35 +$1 +4%
Will Filipe Luis be the next manager of Elche CF? Jun 16 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Cesc Fabregas be the next manager of Elche CF? Jun 16 $195 +$7 +4%
Will Zinedine Zidane be the next manager of Elche CF? Jun 16 $16 +$1 +5%
Will Antonio Conte be the next manager of Elche CF? Jun 16 $60 +$3 +5%
Will Maurizio Sarri be the next manager of Elche CF? Jun 16 $18 +$1 +3%
Will Pep Guardiola be the next manager of Elche CF? Jun 16 $13 $0 +3%
Will Ruben Amorim be the next manager of Elche CF? Jun 16 $18 +$1 +4%
Will Xavi Hernandez be the next manager of Elche CF? Jun 16 $19 +$1 +5%
Will Mauricio Pochettino be the next manager of AC Milan? Jun 16 $188 +$19 +10%
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Jun 11 $173 +$17 +10%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 07 $79 +$111 +141%
Will Marco Silva be the next manager of Benfica? Jun 04 $29 −$19 -64%
Florentino Perez out as Real Madrid president by December 31, 2026? May 29 $75 −$1 -2%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League? May 28 $18 +$9 +50%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 21 $298 +$29 +10%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 18 $196 −$32 -16%
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 12 $165 −$2 -1%
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 20 $100 +$15 +15%
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential e Feb 15 $1,800 −$92 -5%
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential e Feb 15 $1,821 −$658 -36%
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential e Feb 14 $57 −$54 -95%
Will António José Seguro win the second round by 20–30%? Feb 10 $30 −$30 -99%
Will António José Seguro win the second round by 30–40%? Feb 09 $311 +$65 +21%
Will Seguro win Portugal's Overseas Vote? Feb 09 $80 $0 -0%
Will Robinhood run an Ad during Super Bowl LX? Feb 09 $21 −$21 -100%
Will António José Seguro win the second round by 40–50%? Feb 08 $33 −$33 -99%
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential e Feb 08 $50 −$27 -55%
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential e Feb 08 $50 −$45 -90%
Will Seguro win all of Portugal's districts? Feb 08 $11 +$3 +30%
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential e Feb 08 $65 +$11 +18%
Will André Ventura qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal p Jan 19 $1,324 +$412 +31%
Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win 3rd place in the 1st round of the 2026 Jan 19 $903 +$51 +6%
Will António José Seguro win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presid Jan 19 $311 +$123 +39%
Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal pr Jan 19 $271 +$68 +25%
Will André Ventura win 2nd place in the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal Jan 19 $40 +$4 +9%
Will António José Seguro win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presid Jan 18 $142 +$11 +8%
Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential el Jan 18 $233 +$48 +21%
Will António José Seguro qualify for the second round of the 2026 Port Jan 18 $422 +$116 +28%
Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential el Jan 18 $12 −$12 -99%
Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo qualify for the second round of the 202 Jan 13 $193 −$32 -17%
Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 2026 Portugal presidential electio Jan 11 $152 −$10 -6%
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jan 10 $841 +$35 +4%
Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo qualify for the second round of the 2026 Jan 08 $153 +$15 +10%
Will António José Seguro win 2nd place in the 1st round of the 2026 Po Jan 03 $4 −$1 -21%
Will António José Seguro win the first round? Jan 03 $26 −$10 -38%
Battle of the Sexes: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nick Kyrgios Dec 28 $9 +$1 +16%
Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the top US Netflix show this week? Dec 28 $105 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more? BUY Yes 88¢ $8 36m
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more? BUY Yes 86¢ $101 36m
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? SELL No 91¢ $109 48m
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 96¢ $299 1h
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY No 79¢ $38 1h
Will Robert Kenyon finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 94¢ $62 1h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 93¢ $11 2h
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY No 78¢ $38 2h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 93¢ $50 2h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 93¢ $100 4h
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY No 73¢ $18 4h
Will Pep Guardiola be the next manager of Elche CF? BUY No 97¢ $13 4d
Will Xavi Hernandez be the next manager of Elche CF? BUY No 95¢ $19 4d
Will Zinedine Zidane be the next manager of Elche CF? BUY No 95¢ $16 4d
Will Maurizio Sarri be the next manager of Elche CF? BUY No 97¢ $18 4d
Will Filipe Luis be the next manager of Elche CF? BUY No 97¢ $20 4d
Will Ruben Amorim be the next manager of Elche CF? BUY No 96¢ $18 4d
Will Antonio Conte be the next manager of Elche CF? BUY No 95¢ $60 4d
Will Thomas Frank be the next manager of Elche CF? BUY No 96¢ $35 4d
Will Cesc Fabregas be the next manager of Elche CF? BUY No 96¢ $195 4d
Will Mauricio Pochettino be the next manager of AC Milan? BUY No 95¢ $10 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 6d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 6d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 6d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 6d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 6d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 14d
Will Marco Silva be the next manager of Benfica? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $700.01 · official $701.33 (match) · 409 history records