Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:00:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xafac…85d6 weather 111 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$20 (-9%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate45%49W / 61L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day15.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days−$22
14 days−$27
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 53% −$21
crypto 24% −$13
world 12% +$7
sports 9% +$1
other 1% $0
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-25.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 -27.2% -34.2% 40% 31% -27.3%
≤30d 110 -17.6% -25.4% 45% 35% -20.9%
≤90d 110 -17.6% -25.4% 45% 35% -20.9%
all 110 -17.6% -25.4% 45% 35% -20.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.4% 35% -20.9%
10% -32.5% 25% -28.4%
15% -39.1% 16% -35.4%
20% -45.0% 11% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses49 / 61
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)110 / 111
History coverage14d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day15.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 18? Yes 77¢ 78¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 18? Jun 18 $2 −$1 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +75%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +14%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $1 $0 +28%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $1 $0 +25%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$3 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 −$1 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 -17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $22 +$7 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +116%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 9? Jun 13 $12 −$10 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 11? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 11? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Tyler: Blaise Bicknell vs Karl Poling Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Birmingham: Taylah Preston vs Ashlyn Krueger Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 12? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 12? Jun 13 $1 $0 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 12? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +50%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -53%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 18? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 18? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 18? SELL Yes 75¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 18? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 18? SELL Yes 52¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 18? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 18? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 18? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 90¢ $1 18h
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? SELL No 100¢ $1 18h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 18h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 18h
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? BUY No 79¢ $1 19h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 19h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 23h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 23h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? BUY Yes 63¢ $3 23h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? BUY Yes 58¢ $0 23h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? SELL Yes 43¢ $2 23h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? SELL No 17¢ $0 24h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? SELL No 43¢ $1 28h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 49¢ $1 28h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 42¢ $1 28h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 29h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $27 29h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? SELL No 15¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 49¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.19 · official $9.81 (match) · 275 history records