Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:14:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AF
0xafaf…572d
sports · 833 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$956 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$954 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5
Realized−$954
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses417 / 414
Est. fees paid−$212
Open positions2
Markets (closed)831 / 833
History coverage115d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day13.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 2 History 831 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$44
7 days+$151
14 days−$268
30 days−$158
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 12? Yes 19¢ 100¢ $1 $5 +$4 (+426%)
Notts County FC vs. Salford City FC: O/U 3.5 Over 12¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-96%)
Brazil vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Over 36¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Up 69¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Guatemala vs. Czechia: O/U 5.5 Over 11¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Spain vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Over 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 3.5 Over 26¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Down 37¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Singapore vs. China PR: O/U 3.5 Over 30¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Over 53¢ 0¢ $66 $0 −$66 (-100%)
Kosovo vs. Andorra: Both Teams to Score Yes 28¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Up 86¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Arizona Diamondbacks 45¢ 0¢ $65 $0 −$65 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Down 76¢ 0¢ $75 $0 −$75 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Down 64¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Spain vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Over 72¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Down 67¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Up 78¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Ōita Trinita vs. Montedio Yamagata: Both Teams to Score Yes 41¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $101 +$15 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 12 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 12 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $26 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $51 −$13 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 12 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 12 $26 +$13 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $76 −$25 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 12 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 12 $75 +$8 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $26 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $26 +$18 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $151 −$150 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $51 +$30 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 12 $76 −$75 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $126 +$16 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 12 $51 +$26 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 12 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 12 $154 −$150 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 12 $25 $0 +1%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 12 $254 −$254 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 11 $151 +$7 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 11 $51 +$30 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $214 +$24 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 11 $51 −$26 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 11 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $177 −$175 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$25 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 11 $151 +$26 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 11 $76 +$14 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 11 $175 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 11 $52 +$82 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 11 $240 +$28 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$14 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 11 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 11 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 11 $51 +$33 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 11 $203 +$54 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 11 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $302 +$32 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 11 $52 +$41 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $176 +$18 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 11 $127 +$8 +7%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 11 $378 +$8 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 48% −$745
crypto 36% +$217
weather 13% −$74
other 3% −$341
politics 0% −$4
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $26 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $26 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $25 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $25 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $25 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $25 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 258 -0.6% -10.1% 66% 52% -8.7%
≤30d 362 -7.7% -16.5% 56% 45% -10.4%
≤90d 802 -9.7% -18.3% 50% 44% -12.7%
all 831 -8.0% -16.7% 50% 44% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover13.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 44% -11.9%
10% -24.7% 39% -20.3%
15% -32.0% 35% -28.0%
20% -38.6% 32% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.26 · official $5.26 (match) · 2222 history records