Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:43:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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AF 0xafb3…c5e5 crypto 403 markets active 1h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$2 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate58%228W / 168L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day12.7pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$57
7 days−$107
14 days−$101
30 days−$134
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$219
sports 9% +$80
world 1% +$7
other 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 -9.2% -17.9% 55% 9% -13.9%
≤30d 188 -6.1% -15.1% 52% 11% -11.8%
≤90d 372 -3.0% -12.2% 58% 16% -10.9%
all 396 -3.8% -13.0% 58% 17% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 17% -10.8%
10% -21.3% 12% -19.4%
15% -28.9% 8% -27.1%
20% -35.9% 7% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized−$2
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses228 / 168
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions6
Markets (closed)396 / 403
History coverage148d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day12.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 396 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Ethereum Volatility Index hit 100 by June 30? No 90¢ 55¢ $9 $5 −$4 (-39%)
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 44¢ 42¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+9%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 9¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+9%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $39 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $45 −$4 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $23 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $44 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $56 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $58 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $33 −$30 -91%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 16 $4 −$1 -27%
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? Jun 16 $7 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $45 +$8 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $62 −$14 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $111 −$10 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $70 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $13 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $65 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $81 +$6 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $55 −$19 -34%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $9 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $29 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $24 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $54 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 14 $27 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 14 $24 −$4 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $12 −$2 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 14 $53 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 13 $13 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 13 $21 +$1 +2%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 13 $15 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $31 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 13 $52 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $56 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $31 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 13 $66 −$58 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $44 +$4 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.92 · official $17.92 (match) · 2326 history records