Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:56:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AF 0xafb8…2d3a crypto 149 markets active 9h ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$23 (-8%) realized −$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate60%90W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$4
14 days−$11
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$29
sports 2% +$2
other 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -14.6% -22.8% 52% 48% -16.6%
≤30d 71 -16.6% -24.6% 58% 42% -22.0%
≤90d 149 -12.2% -20.5% 60% 47% -19.0%
all 149 -12.2% -20.5% 60% 47% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.5% 47% -19.0%
10% -28.1% 34% -26.7%
15% -35.1% 27% -33.8%
20% -41.5% 19% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses90 / 59
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)149 / 149
History coverage46d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 149 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 11AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +140%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +97%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -63%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $2 +$2 +75%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +71%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -15%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +23%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$2 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +40%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +17%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +33%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -93%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +50%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +26%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +45%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $2 +$2 +109%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 07 $3 +$1 +37%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 06 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +46%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 06 $1 +$1 +97%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET May 30 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET May 29 $1 $0 +10%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET May 29 $1 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - May 28, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 28 $1 $0 +22%
Solana Up or Down - May 28, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 28 $1 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 11AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 11AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 11AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $0 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 10¢ $1 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 12¢ $1 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $2 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $1 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 411 history records