Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:43:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AF
0xafbc…3972
sports · 70 markets active 7h ago
4.5score
+$1,970 +67%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,968 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY sports specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$21
Realized+$1,968
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses43 / 24
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)67 / 70
History coverage129d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 3 History 67 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$15
14 days+$46
30 days+$62
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets New York Mets 49¢ 52¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets No 50¢ 49¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
ITF Hurghada: Aliesia Reva vs Ashleigh Harvey Ashleigh Harvey 49¢ 50¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Under 49¢ 48¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Duckworth vs. Harris: Match O/U 21.5 Under 50¢ 50¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Moutet vs. Ruiz: Match O/U 22.5 Under 53¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Sabres vs. Canadiens: O/U 4.5 Under 21¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Buse vs. Rublev: Match O/U 38.5 Under 51¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Tan vs. Fruhvirtova: Match O/U 21.5 Under 51¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Set 1 Winner: Griekspoor vs Arnaldi Arnaldi 53¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Hurricanes vs. Senators: O/U 4.5 Under 25¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bruins vs. Blue Jackets: O/U 6.5 Over 47¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) Hawks 48¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Over 49¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5 Under 49¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 215.5 Over 50¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Ducks vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 Over 48¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Wild vs. Avalanche: O/U 4.5 Under 19¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) Cavaliers 48¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 211.5 Under 50¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Spread: Pistons (-4.5) Pelicans 50¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Tagger vs. Wang: Match O/U 21.5 Under 50¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 219.5 Over 49¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals Washington Nationals 47¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies No 47¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Zhang vs. Mannarino: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 12 $5 +$4 +93%
ITF Hurghada: Aliesia Reva vs Ashleigh Harvey Jun 10 $5 $0 +2%
Yastremska vs. Bejlek: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 09 $5 +$4 +90%
Kokkinakis vs. Barrios: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 08 $3 +$3 +104%
Burrage vs. Blinkova: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 07 $3 +$3 +100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Jun 06 $6 +$6 +96%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 06 $3 +$3 +92%
Set 1 Winner: Donski vs Duran Jun 05 $5 +$5 +91%
Radivojevic vs. Ristic: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 04 $3 +$3 +113%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 Jun 04 $8 +$7 +90%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 04 $8 +$7 +93%
Duckworth vs. Harris: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 02 $3 $0 +0%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals May 30 $6 +$6 +101%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals May 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET May 27 $6 +$6 +93%
Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 May 27 $6 +$6 +93%
Set 1 Winner: Griekspoor vs Arnaldi May 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Buse vs. Rublev: Match O/U 38.5 May 25 $4 −$4 -99%
Tagger vs. Wang: Match O/U 21.5 May 24 $4 −$4 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 May 23 $6 +$6 +90%
Tan vs. Fruhvirtova: Match O/U 21.5 May 22 $6 −$6 -99%
Michalski vs. Hassan: Match O/U 21.5 May 21 $7 +$7 +100%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5 May 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. P May 18 $7 −$6 -98%
Charaeva vs. Korpatsch: Match O/U 21.5 May 17 $4 +$4 +100%
Avalanche vs. Wild: O/U 6.5 May 17 $4 +$4 +89%
Duckworth vs. Damas: Match O/U 22.5 May 17 $5 +$5 +104%
Sabres vs. Canadiens: O/U 7.5 May 17 $4 +$11 +313%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $800 −$2 -0%
Wild vs. Avalanche: O/U 4.5 May 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Wild vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5 May 12 $6 −$6 -99%
Sabres vs. Canadiens: O/U 4.5 May 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Celtics vs. 76ers: O/U 215.5 May 10 $2 +$2 +101%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 May 10 $3 +$3 +100%
Knicks vs. 76ers: O/U 213.5 May 10 $3 +$3 +104%
Pistons vs. Magic: O/U 210.5 May 10 $3 +$3 +101%
Wild vs. Stars: O/U 6.5 May 10 $4 +$3 +73%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5 May 10 $5 +$5 +93%
Pistons vs. Magic: O/U 209.5 May 10 $5 +$5 +97%
Spread: Pistons (-9.5) May 10 $5 +$6 +105%
Ducks vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 May 10 $6 +$5 +90%
Moutet vs. Ruiz: Match O/U 22.5 May 09 $5 −$5 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 215.5 May 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Ducks vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 May 04 $5 −$5 -98%
Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 211.5 Apr 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Apr 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) Apr 27 $5 −$5 -99%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 219.5 Apr 26 $6 −$6 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Senators: O/U 4.5 Apr 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) Apr 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 73% +$1,964
politics 27% −$2
crypto 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Ne BUY No 50¢ $5 7h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 49¢ $5 30h
Zhang vs. Mannarino: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under 51¢ $5 2d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 49¢ $4 3d
ITF Hurghada: Aliesia Reva vs Ashleigh Harvey BUY Ashleigh Harvey 49¢ $5 4d
Yastremska vs. Bejlek: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 52¢ $5 5d
Kokkinakis vs. Barrios: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Under 49¢ $3 6d
Burrage vs. Blinkova: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 50¢ $0 7d
Burrage vs. Blinkova: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 50¢ $3 7d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. BUY No 51¢ $1 8d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. BUY No 51¢ $5 8d
Set 1 Winner: Donski vs Duran BUY Duran 52¢ $3 9d
Set 1 Winner: Donski vs Duran BUY Duran 52¢ $2 9d
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 52¢ $3 9d
Radivojevic vs. Ristic: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 47¢ $3 11d
Duckworth vs. Harris: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 50¢ $3 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 BUY Under 52¢ $8 13d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Knicks 51¢ $8 14d
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 49¢ $6 16d
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 47¢ $4 17d
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 47¢ $2 17d
Solana Up or Down - May 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 18d
Set 1 Winner: Griekspoor vs Arnaldi BUY Arnaldi 53¢ $2 19d
Set 1 Winner: Griekspoor vs Arnaldi BUY Arnaldi 53¢ $4 19d
Buse vs. Rublev: Match O/U 38.5 BUY Under 51¢ $4 19d
Tagger vs. Wang: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 50¢ $4 21d
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 52¢ $6 22d
Tan vs. Fruhvirtova: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 51¢ $6 23d
Michalski vs. Hassan: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 50¢ $0 24d
Michalski vs. Hassan: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 50¢ $3 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)+19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +77.8% +60.9% 100% 80% +58.6%
≤30d 29 +46.4% +32.5% 69% 66% -3.5%
≤90d 65 +29.5% +17.2% 63% 62% -3.1%
all 67 +31.8% +19.3% 64% 63% +51.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +19.3% 63% +51.1%
10% +7.9% 63% +36.6%
15% -2.6% 63% +23.4%
20% -12.1% 63% +11.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.18 · official $21.18 (match) · 186 history records