Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:47:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
AF 0xafbc…b77a other 114 markets active 1h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,524 (+1%) realized +$1,524 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate23%26W / 86L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$1,031per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$1,188now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$5
14 days−$14
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% +$190
politics 39% −$134
sports 14% +$1,459
world 3% −$3
economics 3% −$3
crypto 1% +$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 22 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 65 +0.5% -9.1% 12% 5% -9.6%
all 112 +4.2% -5.8% 23% 14% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 14% -8.3%
10% -14.8% 14% -17.1%
15% -23.0% 13% -25.1%
20% -30.6% 13% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,305) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +8% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$105 vs −$14 · ×7.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.24 per $1 lost it wins $2.24
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$1,188
Realized+$1,524
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses26 / 86
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)112 / 114
History coverage128d
Avg bet$1,031
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $678 $678 +$0 (+0%)
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $510 $510 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $616 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 19 $1,112 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $995 −$2 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 14 $1,299 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,997 −$3 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,294 −$2 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $1,197 −$2 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $1,150 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $1,031 −$2 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $2,066 −$3 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $997 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $1,679 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $550 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 03 $336 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? Jun 03 $438 $0 +0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $543 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 28 $509 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $2,397 −$3 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $3,109 −$3 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $675 −$1 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 22 $2,010 −$3 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $778 −$1 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 11 $1,324 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $1,353 −$2 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $1,315 −$2 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,360 −$2 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 06 $1,305 −$2 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 04 $1,094 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $1,970 −$2 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $1,036 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 28 $1,032 −$1 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 28 $1,231 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $3,081 −$3 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $5,498 −$6 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $2,657 −$3 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $4,870 −$5 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 10 $1,033 −$1 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 09 $1,247 −$1 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 08 $1,247 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 07 $942 −$2 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $829 −$1 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $806 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $6,237 −$6 -0%
EdgeX FDV above $5B one day after launch? Apr 02 $74 $0 +0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 31 $1,821 −$2 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 30? Mar 31 $63 $0 +0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 30 $1,626 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 30 $861 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 30 $2,928 −$3 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 29 $3,410 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $510 1h
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $615 43h
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $616 44h
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $617 2d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $618 2d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $678 4d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $993 6d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $995 6d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $1,298 6d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $1,299 7d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,294 7d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,296 7d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,292 7d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,294 7d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,195 8d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,197 8d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,148 13d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,150 14d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,030 14d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,031 15d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $747 16d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $748 16d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $995 16d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $997 16d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $990 17d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $991 17d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $549 17d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $550 17d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $542 20d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $543 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,188.08 · official $1,188.08 (match) · 379 history records