Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:10:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AF 0xafbd…5a59 crypto 9 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$8 (-11%) realized −$7 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day34.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-36.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -29.5% -36.2% 50% 25% -39.8%
≤30d 4 -29.5% -36.2% 50% 25% -39.8%
≤90d 4 -29.5% -36.2% 50% 25% -39.8%
all 4 -29.5% -36.2% 50% 25% -39.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -36.2% 25% -39.8%
10% ← realistic here -42.3% 25% -45.5%
15% -47.9% 25% -50.8%
20% -53.0% 0% -55.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 90% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$8 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$7
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)4 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day34.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? No 36¢ 36¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 15? No 80¢ 85¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+7%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 15? Yes 76¢ 57¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-26%)
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? Yes 71¢ 64¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-11%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? No 62¢ 60¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$9 -81%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$3 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$8 -79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 15? SELL No 89¢ $2 7m
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 57¢ $0 29m
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 29m
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 81¢ $4 30m
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? SELL Yes 67¢ $0 30m
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 38m
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? SELL Yes 56¢ $1 39m
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $3 39m
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 15? SELL No 71¢ $0 45m
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 75¢ $2 48m
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 15? SELL No 76¢ $3 50m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $8 51m
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 76¢ $1 53m
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 84¢ $4 53m
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 15? SELL No 75¢ $1 53m
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 36¢ $11 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $2 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $11 58m
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 83¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $7 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $6 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 65¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $8 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 55¢ $0 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.99 · official $20.99 (match) · 36 history records