Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:12:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
AF 0xafc0…8d09 politics 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 233d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate17%1W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$213per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 90% −$2
world 5% +$1
tech 4% $0
other 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 2 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 2 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 6 -0.0% -9.5% 17% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

233d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses1 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage233d
Avg bet$213
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 20 $26 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $377 −$1 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? Feb 22 $68 +$1 +1%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 20 $53 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 10 $34 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 29 $910 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.60 · official $25.60 (match) · 15 history records